Josh Anderson: the counter at zero, but also advanced offensive statistics falling everywhere

“Josh is back.” Martin St-Louis made this statement after the Canadian’s 5-1 loss on Thursday against the Florida Panthers.

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“Josh regains his identity, he had lost himself in wanting to score this goal (which did not come). It becomes heavy and heavy. But I think he’s past that stage. At some point, you turn the page and go for it. That’s where he is.”

Saturday morning, before the Red Wings’ visit to the Bell Center, St-Louis hit the nail on the head of positivism again with Josh Anderson.

In this 5-4 overtime loss against the Wings, Anderson did not stop his endless drought, but he did get the assist on Gustav Lindström’s equalizing goal in the third period. He recovered a loose puck in the slot and then spotted his teammate rather than turning around and attempting a shot. It was the right play.

For those who have the glass-half-full theory, we will speak of a step in the right direction. But for the glass half empty, Anderson still hasn’t scored his first goal of the season.

After 24 games, there is a zero in the goals column for the winger. This is his worst drought since his NHL debut. In 2019-2020, his last season with the Blue Jackets, he had not hit the target in his last 21 games. That year, however, he played despite a shoulder injury.

A question of precision

Anderson didn’t lose his scoring talent overnight. Bad luck explains this desert production, but it is not just bad luck.

In terms of expected goals, Anderson should have scored five goals (5.10) after 24 games. At this time last year (December 3), he had just five goals, but in 22 games. After 24 games, he had scored seven goals.

Photo AFP

In San Jose on November 23, Anderson dissected part of his lethargy in the following way.

“I’m not satisfied with the way I’m placing the puck right now and the precision of my shots,” he explained. I’ve always been good throughout my career at hitting the targets I’m aiming for and putting the puck exactly where I want it. It’s a matter of inches in this league. For some of my chances to score, I couldn’t put the puck where I wanted and it only takes that to miss your shot.

Anderson finds himself a bit like a pitcher in baseball who can no longer hit the corners of the plate with his fastball.

Of all NHL forwards who have played a minimum of 75 minutes this season, Anderson (0.21) ranks fourth among those with the best expected goals average without having yet scored.

Rickard Rakell (0.31), Nicklas Backstrom (0.26) and Jordan Martinook (0.22) are ahead of him. Rakell, of the Penguins, and Backstrom, of the Capitals, are now out with long-term injuries, while Martinook is still without a goal after 23 games. But Martinook is not a scorer like Anderson with 15 goals as his personal high (2018-2019).

Evocative statistics

With the help of Sportlogiq, The newspaper compared Anderson’s advanced stats from this season with last year. There is an observation. All of his advanced offensive statistics are down compared to last year (see table).

In terms of effort, work and hard work, number 17 remains essentially the same player. Even though he recovers a few more pucks and he wins a few more one-on-one battles.

Josh Anderson by the numbers

(averages per game, all situations, rank among CH forwards and rank among NHL forwards)


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