Jordan and Egypt try to maintain stability in the region

Israel responded to Iran on the night of Thursday April 18 to Friday April 19, 2024, five days after the Iranian attack. Countries like Egypt and especially Jordan, which participated in the interception of Iranian missiles on Saturday April 13, are still committed to a diplomatic solution. Explanations from our correspondents.

Three explosions were heard on Friday April 19, 2024, at dawn, near Iranian nuclear sites. Senior American officials say these shots came from the Jewish state, in retaliation for the Iranian attack that occurred five days ago.

Jordan, like the United States and France, participated in protecting Israel during the April 13 attack, by intercepting shots sent from Iran in its skies. This position did not please many Jordanians, but the Jordanian government, like that of Egypt, is working hard to prevent an escalation between the two enemies.

Jordanians’ incomprehension of the authorities

The justification given by the Jordanian state for confronting Iranian missiles and drones as they headed towards Israel did not convince many Jordanians. The government has multiplied messages to explain that it is a matter of “self-defense” and the protection of its airspace. But many found in this affair clear support from Jordan for Israel.

On social networks in many Arab countries, such as Syria and Lebanon, Internet users strongly criticized the Jordanian authorities. Jordanian opponents believe that the shooting down of Iranian missiles amounts to an alliance with Israel, at a time when the kingdom presents itself in international forums as the first defender of the Palestinian people. Diplomatic tensions between Jordan and Israel have indeed been very tense since October 7, 2023, and the Jordanians accuse the Hebrew state of committing genocide in Gaza.

Jordan does not want to become a regional war zone

Before launching the attack on Israel, Iran said it would target any country that intercepted its missiles and drones. However, the Jordanian army shot down a group of missiles in the skies of the kingdom. Iranian media, including the official news agency, have leveled strong criticism at Jordan. They prompted the Jordanian Foreign Ministry to question its policies on the Palestinian issue. The Jordanian government reminded Iran that no other country has come to the defense of Gaza and the Palestinians as much as the Hashemite kingdom for 6 months at the international level.

Jordan, remaining measured, reiterated that the country wanted good relations with all countries in the region, including Iran, but on the condition that Iran does not make Jordan the scene of a regional war. The relationship is based on “mutual respect between the two parties”, recalled Foreign Minister Ayman Al Safadi. After that, the Jordanian army carried out a series of air sorties over the country’s skies, throughout the week, with the aim of preventing any foreign objects from entering its airspace, even if they came from Israel, as the Jordanian army indicated in its official statements.

Egypt seeks way out of conflict plaguing its economy

In Egypt, we react mainly diplomatically. The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Shoukry, has been issuing numerous press releases since the Iranian drone attack. Friday April 19 in the morning, after the Israeli missile attacks on Isfahan, the ministry expressed “his deep concern about mutual escalation” between the two countries.

Less concerned militarily than Jordan, for example, it is in particular the economic side which worries Cairo. The attacks by the Houthis, allies of Iran, who have been raging on the Red Sea since December 2023, have reduced revenues from the Suez Canal.

A crisis unit was set up and the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs spoke with his Israeli and Iranian counterparts. Building on its normalized relations with the Jewish state, Egypt is discussing with all parties in the region, while denouncing, again last week, “provocative military actions in the region”and in particular those of Israel in the Gaza Strip.

The chances of a truce in Gaza pushed back further and Qatar powerless

This expectation of a response and this attack push back the chances of a truce in Gaza. Since the start of the war, Egypt has been at the forefront of negotiations. This has been its traditional role since the Camp David Accords in 1978.

A new sequence of negotiations took place in Cairo, around ten days ago. Like the previous ones, this one produced nothing and, while eyes are turned towards Iran or Lebanon, due to this concern of regional contagion of the conflict, the fate of the Gazans seems forgotten.

Moreover, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, the Prime Minister of Qatar, who is truly the most influential of the mediators, announced that these negotiations were at a standstill last week and that as a result, the oil monarchy would reassess your positions as a negotiator. This could suit Egypt from a diplomatic point of view. Cairo would thus once again become the preferred interlocutor to conduct negotiations for the end of the war as well as the release of hostages. But for the moment, this horizon remains uncertain.