It is a truce that has gone down in history. A ceasefire in 1914 in the middle of the First World War time to celebrate Christmas. The Germans had begun to sing in their trenches. The British had imitated them. In the no man’s landthe French had shared their champagne.
For 36 hours, the enemies had reverted to humans without flags.
Of course, we know the rest – 20 million dead, 20 million injured in four years – but the Christmas truce, as temporary as it was, marked the imagination and inspired the magnificent film. Merry Christmas. Looking at him, we remember how much man is capable of the best and the worst, often on the same day.
And so, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to unilaterally declare a 36-hour ceasefire on the Ukrainian front line to mark Orthodox Christmas. From noon Moscow time on January 6 until midnight on January 7. Well.
In announcing it, he did not speak of the German, French and British soldiers who played soccer together a little over a century ago, but of the appeal of the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Cyril, his great ally and ideological foil.
You see, the Russian army has been pounding schools, hospitals, theaters and essential infrastructure in Ukraine for 10 months, flouting the laws of war and the rights of civilians, but the Russian president would not especially not prevent believers from going to church on this Christmas of the Julian calendar. It would be inhuman, a crime against decency!
Enough with the jokes. This ceasefire is not an olive branch offered to Ukraine as a Christmas present. “It’s a public relations operation to allow Vladimir Putin to assert Russia’s moral superiority, and not to lead to a de-escalation of the conflict and a lasting ceasefire,” said Simon Schlegel, an analyst at the Crisis Group organization, based in western Ukraine. It is primarily a message intended for the Russian public. »
This is not the first time that Russia has presented an action as a gesture of goodwill. “She did it when the Russian army withdrew from Kyiv. When she left Serpents’ Island, ”recalls the one who has been following the Ukrainian-Russian conflict closely since 2017.
In other words, when the Russian army is in trouble, it tries to cover its own defeats, its own setbacks with an aura of holiness.
It looks very good on Russian television, but it doesn’t impress the Kyiv government, which called Putin’s truce a “propaganda gesture” and “hypocrisy”. With reason.
Right now, it doesn’t take an oracle to see that Ukraine has the upper hand in this war it didn’t want. It is gaining ground and has just succeeded in a major strike at Makiivka, killing at least 89 people in the Russian camp on New Year’s Day. On Wednesday, we learned that the United States and Germany were going to supply it with armored vehicles . “The atmosphere on the Ukrainian side is gung ho. The Ukrainians are in no mood to negotiate. They are making gains in their counter-offensive and want to continue to make gains,” says Simon Schlegel.
Despite all the suffering, there is a wind of optimism blowing in the morale of the Ukrainian troops and those who support them. Not exactly the right time to fraternize with the invader, to give him a break. Especially when the latter affirms that he will only agree to sit down at the negotiating table if Ukraine concedes a good part of its territory to him before even starting the talks.
But no truce now doesn’t mean no truce forever.
Barring an unlikely capitulation by one of the two parties, peace in Ukraine will most likely go through tough discussions that will be accompanied by a ceasefire.
This is a crucial step in any conflict resolution process, even essential.
And this is not unthinkable in the Ukrainian-Russian context. During the conflict in Donbass, which preceded the Russian invasion last February, the two countries agreed to ceasefires twice, in 2014 and 2015. In Syria, Russia has also played a crucial role in negotiating a ceasefire in the rebel-held Idlib region.
But for Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire or to declare one itself, it must see its interest in it. And clearly, this interest does not come in the form of a Christmas decoration.