“The 49.3 really suits some in our group”, blows the deputy Les Républicains Nicolas Forissier. And for good reason: this article of the Constitution, which gives the government the possibility of passing a text without having the deputies vote, also allows Republicans not to have to decide for or against the 2023 budget. “I tend to say that the LR group should abstain on the budget. If we want to have a culture of government, it is important to be responsible, especially when we see what state the country is in”valued Nicolas Forissier. Buthe deputy for Indre does not represent the majority line within his party.
“To find our voters who have gone to Macron, we must not lock ourselves into a primary Pavlovian anti-Macronian logic.”
Nicolas Forissier, deputy LRat franceinfo
Within the Les Républicains party, the question continues to create debate. “Voting the budget would mean validating the political options of the majority. However, we do not find ourselves there”says Annie Genevard, acting president of LR. “The major balances of this budget pose a problem for us, between the 155 billion deficit and the 47 billion in new spending, we do not see any effort to reduce the debt”supports Olivier Marleix, leader of the LR deputies in the Assembly. “We are an opposition group, so we vote against the budget”summarizes his colleague Julien Dive.
Conversely, Philippe Juvin regrets the systematic opposition of his right-wing colleagues: “If the amendments we are making improve things, why not vote on the text? It’s a shame to say that we are for or against before the vote when the power of Parliament is back”, argues MP LR. The differences of opinion on a text as important as the budget show to what extent the parliamentary group does not speak with one voice.
Result: several parliamentarians underline the lack of discipline within the group. “It’s important to show solidarity with each other within a group. But there is respect for everyone’s freedom to vote. We have an internal democracy. We are not Playmobil, as in certain groups, says Pierre Cordier. “Everyone does what they want. But there is a problem with discipline, because there is no discipline. It’s the Maria Montessori school”notes an adviser from the “constructive” group. “As long as they do not understand that a choice must be made, there is no possible strategy. You cannot exist”gets annoyed another LR deputy from the same side.
In reality, two lines clash within the group. On the one hand, a dozen deputies wish to engage more clearly in work with the presidential majority, in the wake of Nicolas Sarkozy’s position. On the other hand, a majority of the group’s deputies want to bring the party’s own identity to life. “There are those who think that macronism is a parenthesis and that we will return to the world before, and those who think that the situation has definitely changed”analyzes a framework of the presidential majority.
“They are convinced that LR still represents the right, while LR is only a small fraction of the right. With 4.8% in the presidential election, you are Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. So you must join forces.”
An LR deputyat franceinfo
“There are not two groups. There are individuals who are looking for each other and who sometimes have different visions on a theme”minimizes Julien Dive. “Between the majority and the RN, the crest line is a bit narrow, but it exists. We must keep our personality, our way of seeing things”also believes Pierre Cordier.
The ten “constructive” deputies are trying to put their full weight into the life of the parliamentary group. And for good reason: with 62 deputies, the Republicans cannot afford to put them aside if they wish to reach the 60 elected representatives necessary for a referral to the Constitutional Council or the 58 signatures essential to file a motion of censure. “Result: they weigh more heavily than the 40 ‘Taliban’, as I call them. Because they are to return to ‘Sharia’. It is the right which is supposedly on values, close to Zemmour”tackles an adviser from the “constructive” group.
This new legislature is therefore that of all the uncertainties for the right. For political scientist Bruno Cautrès, the LR parliamentary group will have the choice between two radically opposed options over the next five years: to become a real support force for the government and thus reduce the risk of the country’s institutional blockage or, conversely, , reaffirming a conservative line by directly opposing the majority.
“Their role will be shared between deputies who will want to stabilize Emmanuel Macron with ministerial portfolios as bargaining chips and deputies who will turn their backs to then line up behind a candidacy that embodies a hard right during the next presidential election. “analyzes the researcher at CNRS and Cevipof.
“The LRs can no longer play the role of number 1. But failing that, they can still play that of the political family that works with number 1.”
Bruno Cautrès, political scientistat franceinfo
In the future, these two families are therefore likely to tear each other apart during the examination in the Chamber of each government text. In the absence of voting instructions, the procedure to follow will vary according to the interests of each. A desire to debate and dialogue to the end for the “constructive” and the assumed choice of parliamentary obstruction for the others. “We wonder if some in the group will not vote in favor of the motion of censure on the budget, tabled by the National Rally”worries an LR deputy.
But for the moment, neither of the two components of the group really dares to come out of the woodwork. The reason ? The internal election to designate the new president of the party, on December 3, which freezes all initiatives. But among the main candidates in this ballot reserved for party activists, none embody the line carried by the “constructive” LR deputies.
Even if the young parliamentarian from Lot Aurélien Pradié may appear more open on paper to discussions on certain texts of law with the presidential majority, he claims to defend a candidacy “full right”. Facing him, Eric Ciotti, finalist in the party’s last primary in 2021, defends a sovereign state, and Bruno Retailleau, the president of the LR group in the Senate, is the main representative of the conservative wing of LR. “The prospect of the election for the presidency of the party hysterizes the positions. No one will move before knowing the result”, assures the deputy of the Rhône Alexandre Vincendet. “We all really want the LR congress to pass, that will allow us to enter into a more normal relationship”also assumes a framework of the presidential majority.
Once the crucial stage of electing a new leader is over, everyone hopes to use the strong comeback of parliamentarism to impose their ideas within a group that is hanging by a thread. With, in sight, the presidential election of 2027. “Knowing that Emmanuel Macron will leave the political game after this second term, the ‘constructive’ LR deputies should logically turn to a candidate like Edouard Philippe, assures Bruno Cautrès. As for the most radical line of the party, there are two options: support a conservative candidate and come from the ranks of the party. Or cross the red line and join the far right.”