Jean Charest is still a little lucky in his bad luck. He’s caught COVID-19, so he won’t be able to participate in what looks like an alley battle. Now that the main candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada have come forward, it is clear that it will be anything but a good campaign that will allow a divided party to regain its unity.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
In the United States, Ronald Reagan had had success quoting what he called the 11and command: “You shall not speak ill of another Republican. It did not reach the ears of candidates Pierre Poilievre and Patrick Brown, who have spent the last few days exchanging insults on Twitter.
But for Jean Charest, in a Conservative Party that is no longer the one he left two decades ago, the preliminary question is the one that was asked of all Quebecers who ran for the leadership of a large national party in Canada: can he deliver Quebec? Can he deliver a majority with the vote of Quebecers?
Mr. Charest would no doubt have wanted a hot start, to show that his 10 years out of politics have not affected his ability to win.
But above all, we noted that a good presence on social networks – and whether he likes it or not, this is how we reach voters in 2022 – cannot be bought. We have to build it. And on this point, Mr. Charest proved that he was clearly behind his opponents.
But there is also another aspect of social networks that Mr. Charest cannot control. Go surf five minutes on Facebook or Twitter and you will find at least 10 times a photo of Jean Charest with entrepreneur Tony Accurso, autographed “thank you for everything” by the former Prime Minister.
A photo that dates from 2001 – so before his election as prime minister – but which became famous in 2014 when Tony Accurso testified at the Charbonneau commission.
Of course, a photo doesn’t prove anything. But that it is still circulating 20 years later is a constant reminder of the pans that Mr. Charest has always dragged around since his departure from Quebec politics in 2012.
Pans that are still measured in public opinion. Last week, the firm Abacus asked what opinion Quebecers had of Mr. Charest: favorable opinion: 20%; unfavorable: 47%; and neutral: 22%.
Two years ago, a Léger poll asked the same question, but without the neutral option. It was 72% unfavorable opinion…
There is a problem there, for him, for Mr. Charest. A problem that will not go away by the simple passage of time and a race for the leadership of the federal conservatives.
But this problem will lead to the question that arises in English Canada: can Charest deliver Quebec ?
We will get a good idea when we see the number of new members that Mr. Charest can add to the Conservative Party lists. Across Canada, according to some estimates, some 100,000 new members will be needed to vote for Mr. Charest.
A large number of them will have to come from Quebec since the Ontario market will be quite reduced because of the candidacy of Patrick Brown, a former leader of the provincial Conservative Party and who has the reputation of being an excellent organizer. .
But it’s more difficult to sell membership cards when between 47 and 72% of people have a negative opinion of the candidate. And it is clear that, since the announcement of Jean Charest’s candidacy, there has not been a tidal wave of support for the former prime minister.
Mr. Charest can count on some goodwill among his former PLQ ministers. But it is not with Sam Hamad or Lise Thériault that we are going to trigger a vast popular movement.
But, can Jean Charest win the Conservative leadership? It is possible, but most observers say that if this path exists, it is very narrow.
And there is the other question. The one that does not arise so much in Quebec, but which is essential in the rest of Canada. “Will the leader be a real conservative? »
Mr. Charest decided not to answer the question directly and to say instead that he is the only one who can win a national government. This means a majority government representing all regions of the country.
Two years ago, Mr. Charest gave up running for the leadership of the PCC because it had changed a lot and had radicalized to the right.
A dynamic that still exists and makes the path even narrower.