After first announcing a ceasefire, President Biden walked back his statement before serving a warning to ally Israel: there is a red line that must not be crossed.
Is this an empty promise that is just one move in the usual diplomatic ballet or a real threat that would cause repercussions for the Israeli-American relationship?
The troubled history of red lines
In a text relayed on the website of New York Times On Tuesday, journalist David E. Sanger recalled recent failures to demonstrate force by Joe Biden’s predecessors.
It emerges that before displaying great firmness in the speech, you must ensure that you have the means to achieve your ambitions or even measure the extent of the response.
Allies and adversaries know American weaknesses, starting with the difficulty of convincing the American population of the need to increase military spending or to consider military operations.
When George W. Bush spoke of an “Axis of Evil,” his warnings led to different results for the countries identified. While with North Korea we continued on the diplomatic path despite nuclear tests, we invaded Iraq under a bad pretext.
I have not forgotten that in 2013, Barack Obama put his credibility in jeopardy when he deviated from the suggestions of his advisers to assert that if Bashar al-Assad’s Syria moved forward with the use of weapons chemicals against its population, it would cross a red line.
We know the rest. Obama later obtained evidence of the use of chemical weapons, but failed to follow through on his threat. Instead, he passed the ball to Russia, disappointing his allies and losing face to the opposition.
If Biden is serious
In evoking his red line, Biden was careful not to present the reprisals incurred if Israel defied him, as Prime Minister Netanyahu proposed to do.
Is it realistic for the American to sanction its ally without risking destabilizing an entire region? Recorded without his knowledge after his State of the Union speech, Joe Biden went so far as to tell his interlocutors that Bibi would have his “come to Jesus moment», its moment of truth, its “revelation”.
Since the start of Israeli military operations after the Hamas attack, the Israeli prime minister has continued to contradict the American president or ignore him.
I doubt that the 46e President finally decides to act after having refused to do so for a long time. He has already affirmed that he will not stop supplying his ally with weapons and that he will not turn against him.
The “red line”, once considered a serious warning, has become an empty formula which only aims to calm, if only for a time, American public opinion. Do you think the Israeli government is shaking?