On the evening of the last Quebec general election, the cartographic coloring of the Capitale-Nationale region was fairly uniform. However, the mapping of results by voting section, published by The duty in 2018 and 2022 (which can still be consulted) revealed more complex political configurations. This is the case of the constituency of Jean-Talon, whose “micro-geopolitics” turns out to be more fragmented than in neighboring constituencies, more uniformly powder blue or orange.
From an urban, sociological and political point of view, Jean-Talon is halfway between the solidarity constituencies of the city center and the CAQ constituencies on the outskirts. Also, its socio-economic profile is characterized by diversity, where the predominant middle class is flanked by notable fringes of the more and less well off.
Two Jean-Talons
The constituency is made up of the former town of Sillery, which became a district of Quebec after the 2002 merger, and the southern part of the former town of Sainte-Foy, corresponding today to the districts of Saint-Louis, Plateau and University campus.
We often hear that, from its founding in 1965 until 2019, “Jean-Talon has always been liberal”. The statement must be qualified, because it forgets that the Sainte-Foy part of the current constituency was part of Louis-Hébert until the overhaul of the electoral map put into effect in 2003. However, the latter has already been PQ, notably under Minister Paul Bégin (1994-2002).
Temporal dynamics
In 2014, when Philippe Couillard regained power in the PQ, the PLQ was locally at its peak, with Yves Bolduc winning 15,492 votes (44.5%).
In 2018, despite the victory of François Legault’s CAQ, Sébastien Proulx, elected during the 2015 partial election, kept the constituency in the Liberal fold – despite a reduced score (32.6%) – ahead of CAQ leader Joëlle Boutin (28.6%). The PQ vote is at its lowest. Continuing its slow progression, QS reached third place.
In the by-election the following year, with 9,950 votes, Boutin finally took Jean-Talon from the Liberals.
In 2022, with 11,105 votes, Boutin retains the constituency without making it a CAQ fortress (32.5%). With Olivier Bolduc representing himself, QS increases its score (23.8%) to reach second place. Muted, the PQ (18.7%) is already gaining ground as in the rest of the Quebec region. The PLQ only obtained 13.5% of the votes and fourth place.
Vote transfers are not unambiguous or always obvious, particularly in 2014 and 2022.
Spatial dynamics
The analysis reveals that during the last two general elections, the parties met with an unequal response in the four neighborhoods making up the constituency whose socio-economic profiles are contrasting.
The Sillery district is the most exclusive in Quebec. In 2015, the average gross income of residents aged 15 and over was $79,081, compared to $44,113 citywide. In 2016, 72% of households were owners. Also, the median age is 51 years old. In 2018, Sillery remains overwhelmingly liberal. In 2022, the district switches to the CAQ side, with the PQ often coming second.
On a socio-economic level, the east of the Saint-Louis district is closer to Sillery while in the west the realities are heterogeneous. The average gross income of residents in the neighborhood is $51,743. Almost half (49%) of households are owners. The median age is 43 years old. In 2018, while the west of the district becomes CAQ, the east remains predominantly liberal. Four years later, against a backdrop of divided votes, the east moved to the side of the CAQ at the same time as QS spread around the Henri-IV highway.
The Plateau district has a great socio-economic diversity. While 60% of households are renters, the average gross income of residents is $38,915. The median age is 36 years old. It is here that we find the highest proportion of new arrivals, i.e. 17% in 2016. The neighborhood becomes predominantly CAQ in 2018. In the last election, the sectors along the highway became united.
In the Cité Universitaire district, the median age is only 35 years old. Although 69% of households are renters, the average gross income is $37,960. Furthermore, 15% of residents are immigrants. In 2022, QS clearly dominates in more modest areas. Where the CAQ wins, QS and the PQ are not far away.
A variable political sky
In 2018, in the midst of a powder blue wave in the Quebec region, Jean-Talon remained red, with Sillery acting as a bastion. In 2022, the most dizzying fall experienced by the PLQ in the riding occurred in Sillery where several moved towards the CAQ, which posed itself as a party of the economy. This historic turnaround strongly contributed to the CAQ victory.
Analysis of the figures on a micro scale also reveals that the vote in the last two general elections in Jean-Talon turns out to be more nuanced and volatile than supposed.
Now, polls from the past year indicate a strong rise for the PQ, which adds to the complexity of recent trends.
Beyond the impact of the candidates and the debates, given the mixed nature of the constituency, political groups are likely to find their constituencies of voters. However, the results may vary significantly from one district to another.
Finally, it is clear that during the last election, in more than half (54%) of the voting sections, the party that came out on top won less than a third of the voters. This shows how many local reversals are possible.