Now that Jean Charest has officially entered the race for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada, it is taking on a very different look from the unexciting one that led to Erin O’Toole’s unexpected victory. It is probably the idea that the next Conservative leader could form the government, rather than end up with a long-term subscription to the opposition benches, which arouses this renewed interest in embarking on a race that promises to be hot disputed. We are also waiting to know if Patrick Brown or Michael Chong will start the race.
However, Jean Charest already knows that he will find on his way a determined and ideologically oriented candidate with Pierre Poilievre. One advantage the latter has is that he is a respected figure for his record in the current caucus and that his abrasive style, whatever may be said, appeals to many conservatives. Above all, his populist-inspired speech is probably part of a more important protest vein than one might think.
father and son
In fact, the imposition of the Emergency Measures Act by Justin Trudeau, although brief, may have left traces that go beyond the camp of the irreducible protesters. This has notably made it possible to reactivate the link between the son and his father, which galvanizes many conservatives. However, since no one really knows if this protest energy has completely dissipated in the political space, it is possible that it is at the disposal of a candidate like Pierre Poilievre, who does not hesitate to manipulate the materials ideologically inflammable. In this respect, a rise in inflation following the rise in energy prices caused by the Russian invasion risks creating an environment conducive to ideological one-upmanship.
The big question for Jean Charest is whether he will manage to seduce Conservative supporters in Alberta and Saskatchewan. It is certain that many western conservatives continue to be wary, seeing in him simply a surrogate conservative. At least those who know him.
Camped Perceptions
Since he has been absent from active politics for 10 years, there are still several conservatives who do not really know who he is. Paradoxically, this lack of knowledge gives him a chance to define himself there, which is not the case in Quebec, where perceptions about him, for better or for worse, are quite firmly entrenched.
Moreover, there are conservatives who, even in the West, are likely to support Jean Charest, especially among those for whom economic issues are dominant in the assessment of a candidate. Another element that could play in his favor is that Jason Kenney should remain discreet, the latter having to submit to a vote of confidence next April, an exercise from which he could come out a winner, but weakened.
Another element of uncertainty has been added with the Ukrainian crisis, which has brought oil, gas and pipeline issues back to the fore. We had forgotten that European countries had energy needs met by Russia. However, depending on the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict, the leadership race could take an unexpected turn in terms of its content. For example, without going back to the discourse of Canada as an “energy superpower” dear to Stephen Harper, we could see developing, among Jean Charest and other candidates, a discourse that Canada is a “medium energy power”. At the same time, if this dynamic led the candidates to avoid a debate on the environment, this would prove to be a very bad political calculation, possibly with serious consequences during the next election. If there is one lesson to be learned from the last two elections, it is that the Conservatives must adopt a policy that stands up to environmental issues.
One thing is certain, Jean Charest will have to flesh out his program and his orientations, a necessity that goes beyond the color of his conservatism, be it “Red Tory” or sparkling blue. In the text he published in the National Post (February 25, 2022), Jean Charest wrote that it is not enough “to come to the microphone and say that diversity is our strength”, a thinly veiled allusion to Justin Trudeau. Very good. It is now up to him to take the microphone and address conservative supporters while avoiding what he reproaches others for, that of remaining in cheap clichés.