Javier Milei’s victory results from “the alliance of three electorates” against Peronism in power, analyzes a researcher

“It is the Argentine right which is winning and which has found a way to return to power”, summarizes Christophe Ventura after the victory of Javier Milei in the presidential election.

“This victory is the alliance between three electorates who converged to put an end to Peronism in power” in Argentina, analysis Monday November 20 on franceinfo Christophe Ventura, research director at IRIS, in charge of the Latin America/Caribbean program. After the election of ultraliberal candidate Javier Milei in Argentina with more than 11 points ahead of his opponent, the researcher sees the alliance between the electorate “very clear and anti-political” by Javier Milei, and “the electorate of the right, the traditional conservatives and the Argentine center right” who voted for “prevent the Peronists from remaining in power”.

To govern, Javier Milei will need “an alliance with the traditional right” of former president Mauricio Macri, “to pass its laws”. On the program: a “chainsaw policy, with clear cuts in public policies and the state budget”, difficult to reconcile with Milei’s promises to stop poverty in Argentina, according to Christophe Ventura.

franceinfo: In your opinion, what is due to this victory for Javier Milei in Argentina?

Christopher Ventura: This victory of Javier Milei owes above all to the alliance between three electorates which converged on a single objective: to put an end to Peronism in power. These three electorates are that of Milei from the first round, a very clear and anti-political electorate, quite young from a sociological point of view, and the electorate of the right, that is to say the traditional conservatives and the Argentine center right. They voted for him to prevent at all costs the Peronists, played by Sergio Massa, from remaining in power. We have in these electorates components that we find in Bolsonarism, but I believe that it is above all a victory for anti-Peronist Argentina which has expressed itself.

Javier Milei takes the helm of Argentina mired in an economic crisis; last year, an agreement was made with the IMF to try to get its head above water. As anti-system as he is, he’s going to have to stick to it?

Yes, because he essentially owes this victory to the contribution of the party, the voters, the activists of the party executives of former president Mauricio Macri who led between 2015 and 2019, and who is precisely the man who contracted the loan from the IMF.

So Javier Milei is very dependent on the right?

Javier Milei, it is the Argentine right which is winning and which has found a way to return to power. Milei will depend on this alliance with the traditional Argentine right, she is the only one capable of bringing him a majority in congress. He has no possibility, alone, of passing his laws through Congress. He represents the least well-stocked group among the deputies, he needs Macri and the center right to pass his laws. This is what will determine its room for maneuver. There was the candidate Milei and his radical proposals, and now there will be Milei president who will depend on a whole set of internal political alliances, which will determine what he will do or not.

How to reconcile his program of budget cuts and his promise to end poverty?

It’s going to be complicated to combine. It is clear that its so-called “chainsaw” policy means clear cuts in the state budget, in Argentine public policies, the closure of certain ministries, including some sovereign ones. It will not prevent health and poverty problems from remaining on the table. There are some contradictions in the terms because it is not clear how Argentina could do without public policies or state intervention to deal with all these problems. And this is what the new Argentine president will have to demonstrate.