New Democratic Party (NDP) Leader Jagmeet Singh launched a full-on attack on the federal Liberals this week by announcing his withdrawal from the support agreement between the NDP and Justin Trudeau’s troops, nearly ten months before it was scheduled to expire next June. The leader of the fourth party in the House of Commons repeatedly told anyone who would listen that he had not only ended the agreement that had allowed the minority Liberal government to stay in power thanks to the support of NDP MPs, but that he had actually “ripped up” the now-hated document. As if the Liberals had committed such an unforgivable perfidy that he could no longer trust them.
Yet Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals have stuck to the letter of the deal reached in early 2022. The deal’s flagship commitments—a dental care program for the poor, a pharmacare bill, anti-scab legislation—have all been delivered. Free contraceptives and diabetes medications were just waiting for the Senate to pass Bill C-64. And until Mr. Singh changed his tune, he had nothing but praise for the partnership that allowed the NDP to claim credit for several social advances.
In fact, the Liberals were so confident that they could count on the support of the New Democrats until next June that government House leader Karina Gould made it clear as much as last week at the cabinet meeting in Halifax. In other words, Mr. Singh had given no indication that he was about to abandon his partners of convenience.
“The Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people,” Singh said in announcing his withdrawal from the deal. “They can’t stop the Conservatives. But we can.”
That’s the idea Mr. Singh is now trying to advance as the Liberals stagnate in the polls and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives appear to be on track for a potentially historic victory in the next federal election, which could now come later this fall or next spring, rather than the fall of 2025 as mandated by the Canada Elections Act. While there’s no indication that Mr. Singh will rush to defeat the government — of all the parties, the NDP is the least prepared to rush to the polls — he is now distancing himself from the Liberals to better fight them in the next federal election.
Certainly, the Trudeau government’s decision to impose a binding arbitration order to end the labour dispute in the railway sector, which threatened to paralyze the Canadian economy and which had raised concerns in Washington, had led several NDP MPs to advocate an early withdrawal from the agreement with the Liberals. They had accused them of abandoning the workers and of having infringed on their right to strike. The September 16 by-elections in the ridings of Elmwood–Transcona in Manitoba and Lasalle–Émard–Verdun in Quebec also contributed to the decision to withdraw from an agreement that gave many the impression that Justin Trudeau had won over the NDP.
Now that the break has been made, it remains to be seen whether Canadians who fear a rise to power under Mr. Poilievre will see in Mr. Singh and the NDP the bulwark the NDP leader claims to be. Mr. Singh is hoping to repeat the feat of Jack Layton, who in 2011 elected 103 NDP MPs in the orange wave, making the NDP the official opposition for the first time. But under Mr. Singh, the party remains third in the polls and, if an election were held today, it could lose up to half of its current 24 seats.
The NDP may be in the running in Lasalle–Émard–Verdun, a riding with a rather progressive demographic profile and where the NDP candidate, Craig Sauvé, is well known, but the party remains a marginal political force across Quebec. The province that sent 59 NDP MPs to Ottawa in 2011 does not seem likely to repeat the exercise, while the Bloc Québécois (BQ) continues to lead in the polls, closely followed by the Liberals and Conservatives.
After nearly seven years as NDP leader, Singh is preparing to run what will likely be his final campaign as party leader. As much as he insists he is “running to be prime minister,” it would take a political earthquake for Canadians to see him as a future leader. Anything is possible in politics. But Singh has given himself little time to make such a U-turn and convince Canadians that he is more than just a disillusioned former Liberal shill.