After exactly nine months of financing a war that does not seem to want to end, voices are being raised in the West to encourage the Ukrainian government to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia. Pressures that President Volodymyr Zelensky has carefully deflected, setting as a prerequisite for any discussion the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territories occupied since 2014. An unthinkable demand for Russia, accompanied by a die-hard logic of the Zelensky government which resonates strongly with the Ukrainian population.
“It’s on the battlefield that it will be settled”, affirms with determination Volodymyr Omelyan, who enlisted in the army on the first day of the Russian invasion, on February 24th. He who has fought since the beginning of the war in the region of kyiv, Mykolaiv and Kherson has yet seen a third of his battalion lose their lives or be injured in the fighting against the Russian forces.
“That’s war, we understand that the risk is high,” he says. But negotiating with Russia would be a mistake, continues the man who was Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine from 2016 to 2019. “The Russians only understand physical strength, he insists. If you sit down to talk with them, they’ll perceive that as a weakness. »
In its tumultuous relationship with the USSR, then with Russia, Ukraine has already tested “all other options” to try to contain the imperialist aims of its Slavic neighbor, he argues. “The only option we have left is to win on the battlefield. »
They kill us, they torture us and afterwards, we are told: why don’t you want to talk to them?
The politician, who was not always kind to President Zelensky before the outbreak of the war, today supports his political opponent with conviction and says he is convinced that the military successes of the Ukrainian army, swollen by the recent recovery of Kherson, will lead the country to victory. “We understand that if we lose, we are all dead. This is why we will fight until the end, ”he summarizes.
The 43-year-old man does not believe in the sincerity of Russia, which claims to want to find a negotiated solution to end this war that it itself started. “They are only looking to buy time to revitalize their troops, stock up on weapons and relaunch the offensive in 2023.”
A lack of confidence in the regime of Vladimir Putin that also shares Margo Gontar, a civilian who works as a freelance journalist in kyiv, but who is currently outside the country. “They kill us, they torture us and afterwards, we are told: why don’t you want to talk to them? » she is indignant.
This proposal to negotiate is all the more revolting in her eyes as it would be modeled on the narrative of Russia, she denounces. “I’ve been hearing this since the first day of the Russian invasion in 2014 [qui a mené à l’annexion de la Crimée et à l’occupation de Donetsk et de Louhansk]that we exaggerate the problem, that we try to portray Russia as worse than it is, that we just have to talk to them,” she says.
After the widely publicized parade of atrocities allegedly committed by Russian soldiers, notably in Boutcha and Irpin, the young woman believed that this type of proposal would be put away for good. “I understand where it comes from. In the West, you are so used to negotiating, you have this idea that we can sit down, talk and find solutions. But that’s impossible with Russia,” she insists.
For the one whose brother is currently fighting on the front line, history has taught Ukrainians to be wary of their neighbour. “We’ve been through this so many times already. […] We are going to negotiate, the Russians are going to assure us that they are going to keep their word, they are going to go back home, then they are going to hit us again,” she says resentfully.
“Nobody negotiated with Germany [nazie] “, continues Margo Gontar, who adds that Russia will understand only the ultimatum which will be given to him once the military victory of Ukraine is sealed.
Common interest
According to many specialists, the war could therefore stretch for a long time. Nickolay Kapitonenko, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the Taras-Shevchenko National University in Kyiv, believes that the Zelensky government will continue to refuse to sit down at the negotiating table until Russian troops leave the Ukrainian territory.
Beyond geopolitical considerations, “the government also calculates the political risk and the support of society,” he points out. And for the moment, the Ukrainians are still massively willing to fight to repel the Russian enemy and would oppose any appropriation of their territory in exchange for a ceasefire.
“Even when conditions become more difficult, electricity and heating are cut, infrastructure is targeted, I don’t see that leading to greater support for a negotiated solution with Russia at the expense of losing territory. », Analyzes the political scientist.
Nickolay Kapitonenko does not fear that the inflexible position of the Zelensky government will lead to a major erosion of support from the West. “It is also an investment for its safety,” he believes. Negotiating a peace by accepting the annexation of part of Ukrainian territory to Russia would play against the interests of Western countries, continues the professor. “That would mean that we agree to let a power change the world order and international rules through the use of military force. […] and nuclear blackmail, he analyzes. This is not the type of message the West wants to send to the world. »
Currently, the Ukrainian army has managed to retake about 55% of the territory that has been occupied by Russia since February and it is said to be in an offensive position on most of the front line which stretches for almost 1000 km. “The battlefield is the preparatory stage to strengthen everyone’s positions for the negotiation process,” argues Mr. Kapitonenko. “For Ukraine, there is not much space to move its position since it affects its survival, believes the political scientist. The war that is being played out now is to make Russia reconsider its interests, its demands and its long-term prospects. »