“It’s difficult for François Hollande not to support Anne Hidalgo”, declared on franceinfo on Saturday 6 November, Rémi Lefebvre, political scientist and professor of political science at the University of Lille, after the former president welcomed the socialist candidate in his stronghold of Tulle in Corrèze, publicly showing her his support then that the mayor of Paris is having a difficult start to the campaign.
It was a real pleasure to welcome @Anne_Hidalgo on the Tulle market this morning, under a radiant sun! https://t.co/QqKcw0LBQo
– François Hollande (@fhollande) November 6, 2021
franceinfo: Was François Hollande obliged to welcome Anne Hidalgo as he did?
Remi Lefebvre: It’s hard for him not to support Anne Hidalgo. The question is that of the slider for its support. For the moment, he has unquestionable support but it is clear that he does not have overwhelming enthusiasm for this candidacy. He did not really spare Anne Hidalgo in his last work and we can assume a form of calculation by the former President of the Republic which would appear as a recourse, if Anne Hidalgo persisted at a low level in the polls, there is ambiguity.
This is the whole difficulty of the exercise. Does Anne Hidalgo have an interest in showing off with him?
François Hollande is quite a foil for part of the electorate, we must not forget that his presidential record is rather bad, he was massively rejected. Anne Hidalgo has also always been distant from François Hollande, so there is something a little ambivalent about this rapprochement. We have the impression that Anne Hidalgo cannot do without this support but that it is not really one.
Do you share the opinion of François Hollande who says that it is a good sign to have 5% of voting intentions in the polls today and that it can only improve?
It is very clearly excessive. But he is undoubtedly right when he says that the gambles are not made. The campaign crystallizes in January, that’s when things settle down. For the moment, we are in a pre-campaign phase, but the fact remains that the electoral base, at least polling, of Anne Hidalgo is still very narrow. And it is ultimately in the image of what has become of the Socialist Party, that is to say a secondary party in political life, it is indisputable. I am not surprised by this score, it was the score of the PS in the European elections, it is the score in the regional elections if we consider abstention. There was a misunderstanding about this ballot, it was the incumbents who were elected, not a breakthrough by the Socialist Party.
Corrèze is a land of presidents. Is this also what Anne Hidalgo is looking for?
Of course. Anne Hidalgo’s main handicap is her image as a Parisian, in a context where territorial inequalities and the expectation of proximity are very strong. So, what Anne Hidalgo will try to do in the coming weeks is to correct this image of an elected Parisian, by seeking proximity, as she already does with all the mayors of the major socialist cities that she has succeeded. to enlist behind his candidacy. It is therefore the card that Anne Hidalgo will play, but it is also the card played by other candidates such as Xavier Bertrand or Arnaud Montebourg. It is a bit of a forced figure but not sure that it is so profitable on the electoral plan.
Why is it not audible at the moment? Does the right-wing debate have something to do with it?
The rightization of public debate is absolutely indisputable. We’ve only been talking about Zemmour for weeks. Today, the political agenda is structured and polarized around issues like immigration, security, Islam. It is very difficult for a leftist candidate in this context to make herself heard. There is also such a cacophony on the left that it is all the more difficult to exist, full of candidates trying to express themselves. We have seen it with Yannick Jadot on hunters in recent days. The political space on the left is very competitive. And all these reasons explain the difficulties of Anne Hidalgo to break into the polls.