“It’s a blow for Vladimir Putin which adds to a whole series,” said Michel Duclos, former ambassador, special adviser to the Institut Montaigne. Russia opened a criminal investigation this Saturday, October 8 after the explosion of a truck on the Crimean bridge, killing several people.
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The circulation of cars, then trains, was able to resume this Saturday, October 8 on the Crimean bridge, but the damage caused by the explosion of a truck is none the less a “blow for Vladimir Putin“. This was estimated on franceinfo Michel Duclos, former ambassador and special adviser to the Institut Montaigne, who adds that it is clear that he has his back to the wall more and more. I think his military apparatus is in great difficulty.”
franceinfo: The Russian president will increase his offensive on Ukraine?
Michael Duclos: Still, he would have to have the means. It appears that the mobilization to which he is proceeding will, at best, only have results in a few months. So the next few weeks will be very difficult for him. It is clear that he no longer has many forces against Finland, he has thinned out in the Far East, even in the Caucasus he is beginning to lighten his position. So he really put most of his strength into the battle and without results.
No claims for the moment, but we think of an action prepared by the Ukrainians. Is this form of provocation dangerous?
I think we’ve passed that stage. Now Putin must look at the bare balance of power. He has enough experience to know he is failing. The psychological question appears. Is he going to have the reaction of the cornered rat, which he himself has sometimes mentioned? We are not there yet I believe, but there is this exchange of arms between him and the Americans on the question of recourse to nuclear power.
You believe in it ?
In terms of theoretical analysis for the moment the Russians have not come out of the simple threat. On the other hand, there is the psychological element and I believe that the Americans have put in place a strategy to deter it. It was first to send discreet messages, not public, to indicate that if he took action the consequences would be very serious. It is possible that the Chinese issued the same kind of warning. In this maneuver, Westerners had better not make things worse because it might give Putin what he is looking for, a kind of blackmail ability. I think Biden has the right intuition to take Putin on board a bit.