Italy, Netherlands, Croatia… What would be the worst and best scenario for the France team?

Six months before the tournament kicks off, the draw takes place on Saturday in Hamburg at 6 p.m.

Will Didier Deschamps always be so lucky? Accustomed to avoiding the toughest opponents at the start of major international competitions since the start of his mandate in 2012, the coach will not be present in Hamburg (Germany), Saturday December 2 (6 p.m.), during the draw for the Euro 2024. The latter underwent back surgery on Tuesday. What undermine the “luck” of the French team? Franceinfo: sport projects itself into the most favorable and unfavorable scenarios for the Blues.

The toughest draw: Denmark, Croatia and Italy

A semi-finalist of the last Euro, a semi-finalist of the last World Cup and the defending champion. This is what the group of death would look like if France were to be particularly unlucky on Saturday.

In hat 2, strangely understated, Denmark embodies the toughest option. Recent history has given rise to a good number of confrontations with the Scandinavian selection, the Blues having had to scrape with them during the last two group stages of the World Cup, or even in the Nations League in 2022. Of the four most recent matches , all played since 2018, they have a rather mixed record, with only one success for one draw and two defeats.

In hat 3, two opponents stand out: the Netherlands (6th in the FIFA rankings) and Croatia (10th). Kylian Mbappé and his teammates quite easily beat the leaders twice in the qualifying phase in 2023 (4-0, 2-1). When the Dutch are quite irregular in major competitions (World Cup + Euro), the Croatians remain in two World Cup semi-finals and have systematically left the groups since Euro 2016. Above all, they are no longer as successful as the Blues, beaten during their last shock in the League of Nations (1-0 at the Stade de France in June 2022).

Finally, hat 4 presents a very heterogeneous level. It will absolutely be necessary to avoid Italy, crowned in 2022 and which does not leave a very good memory for the French team, having participated in its elimination at Euro 2008 from the group stage and, obviously, by depriving it of the world title winner in 2006.

The most lenient draw: Albania, Slovenia and a roadblock

In the best case scenario, Didier Deschamps’ players would face Albania, the most inexperienced opponent in hat 2 (elimination in the France group during its only participation in 2016), but also the least well placed in the rankings. Fifa (62nd).

The hierarchy is less clear in hat 3. Perhaps Slovenia, surprise of the qualifiers, is the most affordable team. The 54th world selection has never passed the group stage of a major tournament and has a team of slightly lower quality than Slovakia, having only two top players: goalkeeper Jan Oblak (Atlético of Madrid) and the promising striker Benjamin Sesko (Leipzig).

Being placed in the same group as a jump-off rider, more particularly the one who will emerge victorious from route C (Georgia, Luxembourg, Greece, Kazakhstan) is the best option to minimize the risk of leaving the route prematurely.

The trickiest draw: Hungary, Netherlands and Switzerland

If the scenario to avoid seems clear, the Blues will have to avoid the pitfall of underestimating certain opponents. Hungary in the lead. In full renaissance since the previous Euro, where it caused big problems for the French team in Budapest (1-1), it continues to progress. The Magyars, for example, finished the year 2023 undefeated, with 10 matches and no defeats, completing the qualifiers in first place in their group, ahead of Serbia, whom they beat twice.

Finding the Netherlands again would not be good news for the Blues. Even if they logically dominated the Dutch in 2023, the latter did not have all their best players (including Frenkie De Jong and Cody Gakpo) and their very promising youngsters like end of the season. In any case, the Netherlands did not succeed in the French team at the Euro, beaten the two times it was placed in the same group as the Oranje (4-1 in 2008 and 3-2 in 2000).

Also watch out for Switzerland, who had shattered the Blues’ dreams of winning the previous Euro at the round of 16 stage, on penalties. The Nati avoided defeat in its last two confrontations with France at the Euro (2021 and 2016).

The unique draw: Austria, Scotland/Slovenia and Serbia

None of these three selections crossed paths with the France team at the Euro. The Blues have not faced Austria in a major tournament (Euro + World Cup) since the 1982 World Cup for a 1-0 victory. Their only opposition against Scotland in a major tournament dates back to the 1958 World Cup (2-1 victory). Finally, they have never challenged Serbia outside of friendlies and qualifying matches, just like Slovenia, who have not crossed their path since 2003.