“It is very clearly a disruption to have such mild temperatures like that in winter”, said Tuesday, December 28 on franceinfo Robert Vautard, climatologist-meteorologist, director of the Pierre-Simon Laplace institute, coordinator of one of the chapters of the IPCC report. Smoothness records are expected this week in France.
franceinfo: How many degrees are we above seasonal standards?
Robert Vautard: We are several degrees above normal for the season. But above all, we will reach values that are close to records, in the Paris region, for example, Météo France forecasts give temperatures of around 16 ° on Wednesday and Thursday. The records are rather at 17 °. Above all, what is surprising is this persistence of extremely mild temperatures. The records should be approached in the regions of the south of France, the southwest, the west, the Center. This warmth is mainly due to a mass of air coming directly from the tropical Atlantic which in a few days brings air masses which are very hot, which have been warmed by the Atlantic Ocean directly and probably also a small contribution of climate change which has certainly brought us a degree more or a little more.
Is it an illustration of the degradation of the climate?
It is very clearly a disruption to have temperatures as mild as that in winter and in a generalized way for several days. And it is a disruption that brings some good news in winter in terms of the energy bill. We are talking about it a lot at the moment, but there are also many consequences on the disturbance of vegetation, in particular. For example, we had in the winter of 2015 and in the spring of 2016, abnormal events, a very mild month of December, followed by an extremely rainy spring which led to a fairly significant drop in harvests. Vegetation needs cold in winter to be able to develop. It is a disturbance on the vegetation and on the ecosystems. If the mildness persists, what can happen later in the season is early vegetation development which brings the vegetation to exposure to freezes which could occur later in March and April.
Should we expect this type of warmth in the years to come?
The IPCC report is quite clear on extreme events, especially related to heat, whether in winter and summer. Extreme hot events are on the rise across the world with a few small exceptions. They are already there. Climate change is already manifesting itself today and in a climate of 1.5 ° C or 2 ° C, these extreme situations will further increase in frequency and intensity, both in winter and in summer.