While the French Minister for the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, said she was ready to send “several hundred men” at the border between Romania and Ukraine for “defend the countries that are closest to this zone of tension”Patrick Martin-Genier, teacher at Sciences Po and INALCO, estimates, Saturday January 29 on franceinfo that in the Ukrainian crisis “it is the security of Europe that is at stake”. Since the end of December, Russia has been accused of preparing a military intervention on Ukrainian soil. Several negotiations are underway to try to avoid such an outcome.
Can NATO prevent a Russian intervention?
I believe that Vladimir Putin was very surprised by the reaction of the West, the willingness of the United States to send NATO troops and American troops under NATO surveillance. This is an important element because Vladimir Putin had imposed completely inadmissible conditions, that is to say the fact that NATO forces should withdraw their forces not only from Romania, but also from Poland and Belarus.
There is indeed a significant reaction. But is it likely to prevent Putin from moving forward?
I do not believe. He wants a result and he won’t back down until he has a diplomatic result. And indeed, he still raises this threat of a military intervention in Ukraine. That said, Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine said: “NATO, we must be careful, we must not panic, do not get angry, there is no imminent risk of invasion today.“.
We can clearly see today that there has been a war of nerves for a week and the words of Mr. Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, show that there is still a place for diplomacy
Pierre Martin Genierat franceinfo
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Even though Vladimir Putin said today that the West and NATO countries did not accept his own proposals. Which means that we are today, in fact, in a situation of complete blockage.
How is Europe affected?
What is at issue is truly freedom, the right to self-determination of peoples. It is clear that Vladimir Putin has never respected the UN resolutions, namely the fact that Crimea should return to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The Donbass war is also an attack on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. But beyond Ukraine, it is the security of Europe that is in question.
Including Vladimir Putin, by demanding the withdrawal of troops from NATO, Romania, Poland and Bulgaria, in reality he seems to link the fate of Europe to Ukraine.
Pierre Martin Genierat franceinfo
So we are totally in solidarity. The only difference is that since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it cannot invoke article 5, which provides for mutual assistance in the event of aggression by one of its members. One could consider that it is an opposition between the United States and Russia. But beyond that, it is all the same the security of Europe which is in question, but also the freedom of a country to be able to choose its own alliances.
Do we have the means to wage war on Russia?
Absolutely not. Even if France is a permanent member of the Security Council, even if we are a nuclear power, we know very well that we will never use the nuclear bomb. Even if we have a capacity for persuasion and deterrence, France alone will not be able to avoid this aggression, which means that all the NATO countries must come together to deal with this characterized aggression by Russia against -Vis to Ukraine.
The only problem is that among the European states in NATO, some are divided. The weak link today, obviously, is Germany, which refuses this aggressive military push forward, to send German arms to Ukraine.
Pierre Martin Genierat franceinfo
It even refuses, if necessary, to let NATO forces fly over its airspace. France cannot effectively have the possibility and the ability to prevent this aggression. This is why the NATO states must show solidarity. We saw that the Netherlands and Denmark were going to send forces, ships, military planes. So it can only be a united NATO front. And France alone obviously does not have the capacity to prevent a possible invasion, either total or partial, of Ukraine.
Doesn’t the mobilization of NATO risk stirring things up on the ground?
Yes of course. The difficulty is knowing what is going on in Vladimir Putin’s head. It needs a top exit. I had the impression that the interview that happened yesterday with the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, was rather positive because it lasted an hour, and Vladimir Putin is still in a difficult position. In my opinion and also according to military experts, Russia does not have the capacity to hold out for long, should there be an invasion.
You still have to know that the Ukrainians are ready for war.
Pierre Martin Genierat franceinfo
The war has been going on for a long time, it has been going on in the Donbass since 2014, with 15,000 dead all the same. Ukraine is absolutely determined. For Russia, it would truly be a quagmire like Afghanistan if that country were to engage in all-out war. Today, we are rather in a kind of de-escalation. It’s been a week that diplomacy is in action, we must hope that we can achieve something. But again, Vladimir Putin said that his main demands had not been respected by the West and by NATO, so we are still today in a war of nerves. One cannot exclude an aggression that could be either total or partial from Ukraine.
Should France remain in NATO’s integrated command?
I believe that being a member of NATO’s integrated command is something essential, even strategic. The only alternative would be European defence, which absolutely does not exist. We see that there are discrepancies. Europe is trying to come together, to have a mutual approach in terms of industry, armaments, but there is no European defence. Consequently, if there is no European defense today, there is no other alternative than NATO, therefore to belong to the integrated military command. If France left the integrated military command, first, it would lose considerable influence and it would be a gift given to Vladimir Putin. I think that even if Emmanuel Macron had said that NATO was brain dead, today we can clearly see the significance of this military organization which is there to defend freedom in Europe.