Mahmoud Zureik, professor in epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines and director of Epi-Phare, guest of franceinfo Friday, November 19, believes that it is necessary “probably encourage teleworking again” in France. The fifth wave of the Covid-19 epidemic is now well established in Europe, but in a different way depending on the country.
>> INFOGRAPHICS. Resumption of the Covid-19 epidemic: this “fifth wave” has been compared with that of autumn 2020
In Austria, the government announced on Friday a generalized confinement as of Monday, while the country had already reconfined the unvaccinated since the beginning of the week. The Austrians will also have the obligation to be vaccinated from February 1, 2022. At the same time, in France, the Ministry of Labor indicates Thursday that it does not consider, at this stage, to strengthen the rules on teleworking.
franceinfo: How do you explain Austria’s coming to re-define itself?
There is a very high number of infections in Austria, 15,000 new cases per day. We are currently at 13,000 cases per day in France. There are two reasons, in my opinion, that explain this situation in Austria. The first is that the country has been a little less affected than France in previous waves, which leaves many people unimmunized by the virus. The second is that the vaccination percentage is low. They are at 65%, in France we are at 75%. But it is not only this 10% difference that plays a role, it is also that the percentage of elderly and frail people vaccinated in Austria and Germany is two to three times lower than that in France. These two elements could explain the surge in the number of cases in these countries. The fact that it is colder there may also explain the rise in contamination. Both because there is a seasonal effect and at the same time because the way of life changes, we are more and more in a closed place, there is no ventilation, it is difficult to respect the rules. barrier gestures. The models of the Institut Pasteur in France show that the cold and the climatic conditions could increase by about 30% the rate of transmission of the virus. [par rapport à l’été dernier].
Was Germany wrong not to impose a vaccination obligation on caregivers and not to impose a health pass?
In France, there was indeed the introduction of the health pass which, nevertheless, encouraged many people to be vaccinated and to limit social interactions among people likely to be infected. There was also the vaccination obligation for caregivers which allows them to protect themselves and patients. If we analyze these results in France, then yes, we can think that Germany should have introduced the health pass. Especially since the health pass in other countries like Denmark has worked very well. But when Denmark decided not to apply it anymore, the wave returned and of significant violence. We do not know the evolution of the situation in France. But there are really three big pillars to fight the epidemic. The first, and by far the most important, is vaccination, hence the importance of getting vaccinated and the booster for the elderly and frail people. The second is everything that is around barrier gestures, whether it is the sanitary pass, whether it is the wearing of the mask inside, the ventilation. The third pillar is everything around testing and tracing people who are positive.
Has the vaccination message not been conveyed well enough or explained well?
The message that did not get across very well is that, over time, the effectiveness of these vaccines on the infection and on its transmission is much lower. It is at most of the order of 50% after a few months of vaccination. If there are 50 million French people who are vaccinated, that means that with these 50%, there are 25 million people in France vaccinated who can be infected and who can transmit the virus, it is therefore a reservoir huge. This is why there will be many cases of infection, and we hear testimonies everywhere from vaccinated people who have caught the virus. When you have a reservoir of this nature, it is also normal for there to be an even higher number of severe forms, although that protects by 90%. So it is not enough to say that we are protected from serious forms, but the fact that there are a lot of people who can be infected will generate people who can develop serious forms, even if it is ten times less. I think that we have not said enough. If we also take the case of the sanitary pass, we have the impression that we can go to a restaurant and that there is no problem. No, we can be infected, and we can transmit the virus. The ideal is to put on the mask before and after, or perhaps to avoid, in this context of significant epidemic recovery, all that is contacts and places where there are many people.
Should we go back to teleworking?
To fight against the epidemic, we must use all the tools that have shown their usefulness. We are very far from the situation of confinement or curfew, the number of cases in France currently, it is around 13,000, it is far from the 40,000, even 50,000 that we have known. We talked about health passes, the importance of ventilation, social distancing, the wearing of masks, but we must also probably encourage teleworking again. All the steps that aim to have less social contact will be useful in the fight against the epidemic.