Sabine Dullin, professor of contemporary history at Sciences Po specializing in Russia, estimates this Wednesday afternoon on franceinfo that“it is not certain that war will immediately take on a form of direct aggression” by Russia in Ukraine.
franceinfo: The Ukrainian army is alone against the Russian?
Sabine Dullin: Yes. Ukrainians heard what Putin said and saw it as a declaration of war, since he denied the existence of a real Ukrainian state that was right to exist. Inevitably, the reaction is a mobilization, a form of sacred union to try to build the defense against the Russians. So, obviously, on the other side, it is not certain that the war will immediately take on a form of direct aggression. Very often, the Russians and the Soviets in the 20th century tended to develop somewhat vague forms of warfare, where you nibble little by little, starting precisely from puppet republics which, all of a sudden, ask you to intervene. Initially, it is possible that the Russian reaction is above all an action which aims to widen the borders of these puppet republics to all the provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk. It is not at all certain that the great Russian aggression will take place immediately and it may take other forms. It is possible that the strong Ukrainian mobilization also has the strategy of making the Russians hesitate. There is, the Russians know, no commitment on the part of the West to come and assist the Ukrainian army on the ground. On the other hand, there is indeed an export to Ukraine of armaments on the part of the West and the Turks, and all this can obviously cause a little hesitation [la Russie].
Does Vladimir Putin hesitate to go further in your opinion?
Vladimir Putin has one goal in mind, which is to partially restore the former Soviet Union. But in terms of timing, ways of doing it, there are obviously different solutions. We know how much the Ukrainians and the Russians are peoples who have a very similar history. There are families in common on both sides. Launching a big war against Ukraine is still a lot of risk. We are preparing for war with reminders from fellow citizens and diplomats on both sides. There is a real patriotism in Ukraine, a will to resist, with a nation much more united than twenty years ago in the country. There is also perhaps an attempt to demonstrate that we will not let it go, that can make the camp opposite hesitate a little bit. It is not certain, on the other hand, that the economic sanctions are very dissuasive for the government of Putin.
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Does Russian society side with Vladimir Putin?
We understand that the inhabitants of the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, who have been living for 8 years in a kind of latent war, are rather happy with this Russian intervention because they have the impression of being better protected. We probably have the same idea on the other side of the border, but we can think that there is perhaps a form of weariness in Russian cities. The annexation of Crimea had shown a kind of complete patriotic impulse, because Crimea had never been considered truly Ukrainian from the Russian point of view. Certainly, Ukraine is considered the sister of Russia, but from there to waging war on brothers, there is a very large margin.