“It is completely unprecedented in the contemporary era” that a vice-president is running against his former president, judges a specialist in the United States

“There is a personal estrangement” between Donald Trump and Mike Pence, “it is now indisputable”estimates Monday June 5 on franceinfo Corentin Sellin, associate professor of history, columnist and specialist in the political history of the United States for the site Daysfollowing the announcement of Mike Pence’s candidacy for the Republican nomination. “It’s completely unprecedented in the contemporary era” that a vice president is running against his former president, he adds. “Normally, a defeated president does not stand for re-election and leaves political life. This is the tradition in the United States”.

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franceinfo: Is it quite unusual for a former vice-president to stand against the former president, whose running mate he was in the past?

Corentin Sellin: Yes, it is completely unprecedented in the contemporary era. And this historical anomaly happens for two reasons. The first is that normally, a defeated president does not stand for re-election and leaves political life. This is the tradition in the United States, a tradition that was broken by Donald Trump, who still does not recognize his defeat in 2020 and who is running for the Republican nomination for the third time. And on the other side, there is also normally a kind of unspoken pact between a president and his vice-president, which is that they are never against each other. But this tacit pact was, according to Mike Pence, broken during the Capitol insurrection. At the time, rioters in favor of non-certification of the results sought to prosecute him in Congress to hang him. And Mike Pence did not appreciate at that time the lack of support from the one who was then his president and his running mate.

Can we say that there is a stubborn grudge against Donald Trump on Mike Pence’s side when for four years, in the end, he said nothing about the excesses?

There is a personal estrangement, it is indisputable today. Especially since Mike Pence testified about the Capitol insurrection in the major federal investigation that is underway on the responsibilities relating to this Capitol insurrection.

“There is undoubtedly a now personal gap between the two men”

Corentin Sellin, specialist in the political history of the United States

at franceinfo

But at the same time, and this is the whole difficulty of this upcoming candidacy, what part exactly of Trump’s presidency, which he shared in full, in particular, for example, on the very strict immigration policy, Mike Pence will he disavow, aside from the Capitol insurrection? And besides, we can clearly see this difficulty since in the same speeches, Mike Pence celebrates the four years of Trump’s presidency, of which he was vice-president, to say that they have accomplished great things from a conservative point of view. And two sentences later, he still seems in a very measured and disguised way to question the personality of Trump himself. We can clearly see there that there is a really very narrow path for him in this upcoming candidacy.

And doesn’t Mike Pence finally show up to prevent Donald Trump from winning?

So he probably has two ideas in mind. The first idea, what do we know about what he said to the federal justice on the investigation relating to the insurrection of the Capitol? And can he not hope, in this investigation which is clearly the most dangerous for Donald Trump, a disqualification of Donald Trump? He is undoubtedly making a bet in particular on the primary, it is a caucus which takes place in Iowa in February 2024. And in this first ballot, it is the white evangelicals, including Mike Pence, who are the main electoral bloc. in this state by the way. In 2016, Donald Trump failed to win because his overflowing New York personality failed to appeal to religiously conservative evangelical voters.

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Could Mike Pence do it?

He is in a state not far away, that of Indiana, he is betting that he will be able to seduce these very religious voters. As much as it is necessary to insist on this point. Mike Pence is very comfortable in the campaign in the door-to-door. He has great empathy and a great sense of contact with voters. And maybe he thinks that, who knows, if he manages to win the Iowa caucuses which have often consecrated Republican outsiders, maybe then everything will be unblocked.