Israeli ground offensive in Gaza | A high risk scenario

Israel has promised unprecedented retaliation against Hamas. But at what cost ? And what are the challenges that await it? Independent journalist Alain Pirot, specialist in defense issues and former correspondent in Jerusalem, discusses the challenges of a military invasion in Gaza.

There is talk of an imminent attack on Gaza. What do you think ?

I think in terms of timing, yes. There is such a spirit of vengeance, of anger, given the historical aspect and the number of injured and dead, that I would be very surprised if the Israeli army did not enter Gaza. This scenario has often been brought up, but it has always frightened Israeli leaders.

Why ?

The way the city is made. The format of a military operation means that there would be a very high number of deaths in the Israeli army. It’s known. There are urban areas in Gaza that are incredibly populated with extremely crowded streets. What gave such density were the Palestinian refugee camps created by the 1948 war and which became permanent urban areas. You go to Shejaiya or Jabalia or the Al-Shati neighborhood, these are former tent camps that have become overcrowded urban areas.

Is this density a big problem for the Israeli army?

This is a problem when a modern army must circulate in a city to catch an enemy hidden in tunnels and this enemy can strike at any time behind this army’s back, either with snipers, either with ambushes or with explosive devices. If the Israeli army is currently bombing Gaza as it has never done, it is to dismantle through shock the underground network that exists, but also to create vast open areas to post points of convergence for a certain number of people. of vehicles. They set the table.

What do you think is their objective?

The first objective is to recover the hostages who are in the basements and in the caches set up by Hamas. If at any point the Israeli army becomes convinced that these hostages have been shot, then its objective will be to go after the Hamas fighters and leaders within the tunnel network by the collar. We do not know the details of these tunnels. But entering it is the fear of having soldiers killed by the dozens, caught in explosive traps, or soldiers captured again. That said, I think that the Israeli population is ready to bear the price of many losses, if these losses lead to the destruction of the Hamas organization. You cannot destroy the terrorist organization Hamas without destroying the network of tunnels and underground infrastructure that exists in Gaza.

Should we expect wholesale destruction?

Much has been said about the arrival of the American carrier strike group with the USS aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford. What has been less commented on is the arrival of American and Israeli special forces, SEAL Team Six and Shayetet 13. I see a grouping of elite forces forming near the Gaza Strip, which, I think, will be used as the driving force of the Israeli operation. Once the areas are cleared by these special forces, I believe the Israeli infantry will take over.

What will the Israeli offensive mean for the residents of Gaza?

This will involve a massive bombing campaign as we have seen for several days, with the certainty that Gazans have no refuge. When we say that the Gazan population is hostage to Hamas, it is because they are the first victims of the bombings resulting from its military campaigns. Gaza’s underground infrastructure has not been accompanied by the construction of air raid shelters like those seen in Israel or Ukraine. Civilians are even more taken hostage because since the announcement of the closure of the Egyptian border, they have no way of getting out. The Americans are working on some sort of agreement to support the evacuation of a certain number of residents. But I’m not sure that this is geographically possible and not sure that the Egyptians will want to open their doors, with the risk that when you evacuate the Gazan population, Hamas fighters will hide in the flow of refugees.

What solutions for civilians, then?

Israel advised residents to leave populated areas and go to places not exposed to combat. The problem is that the Gaza Strip is very small! Unless we go to the beaches or to no man’s land, which is unimaginable, I don’t see any other way out.

Why did Hamas do what it did, knowing that ultimately it was the Palestinian population who would pay the price?

Essential question. Hamas’ objective is the destruction of Israel. I have never heard Hamas leaders talk to me about a peace plan. This is the big difference with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. For Hamas, a world without the State of Israel is part of a possible reality and it is only a matter of time. I wouldn’t say that we are sacrificing the population. I say that the sacrifice of certain Gazan residents is part of an equation that is perfectly accepted by the leaders of Hamas…