Accused of corruption in a series of cases, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discusses a plea bargain that would allow him to escape prison, but which could end his political career, and bring down the current government.
On TV, on the radio, in the press and on social networks, Israel follows in detail the saga of the “iskat tioun”, or “plea bargain”, a plea bargain by Mr. Netanyahu in order to escape to a possible prison sentence.
Confirming elements of the local press, judicial sources told AFP that talks were taking place between the Prime Minister’s clan and the judiciary regarding a sentence negotiation.
These sources, however, did not comment on the state of the discussions or suggest that Mr. Netanyahu, at the head of the Israeli government from 2009 to last June, would accept an agreement.
The former prime minister is accused of having received gifts (champagne, jewelry, cigars) from wealthy personalities, of having tried to secure favorable coverage from Israel’s largest paid daily, the Yediot Aharonot, and of favoring a telecom magnate for a similar purpose.
Charged with corruption, breach of trust and embezzlement, the longest-lasting head of government in the country’s history claims his innocence and accuses the courts of having hatched a “coup” against him.
Despite these accusations, Netanyahu held on to power for months and won snap elections until his rivals rallied a majority last June to end his rule.
Confession or jail?
Netanyahu’s lawyer met with Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, who is retiring in two weeks, to discuss a plea bargain in which the 72-year-old ex-prime minister would plead guilty to certain charges to avoid a possible prison sentence.
However, the prosecutor is also seeking, according to local media, to add a “moral turpitude” clause, which would have the effect, according to Israeli law, of preventing Mr. Netanyahu from sitting in Parliament for the next seven years.
“Seeing Netanyahu in prison is not impossible to imagine. And I think he thinks about it himself. (…) Also, he sees his chances of returning to power dwindle a little more each day. Therefore, I believe that it is more and more likely that he considers an agreement” with justice, explains to AFP the political analyst Schmuel Rosner.
According to a poll by the Kan public broadcaster, a majority of Israelis (52%) oppose such an agreement. And people demonstrated against the agreement this weekend in front of the prosecutor’s residence in Petah Tikva (center).
A deal would be “too little, too late” for Israel, as Mr. Netanyahu would not have to repay the value of the donations received, and has already “undermined the moral foundations” of a deal with the judiciary by accusing him of conspiring against him, commentator Nahum Barnea pointed out on Monday in the pages of Yediot Aharonot.
For its part, Israel Hayom, the most widely read title in the country and considered favorable to the former prime minister, judges that an agreement would be “unfair” with regard to the latter, presented as the victim of a “political” trial.
Goodbye coalition?
An agreement could reshuffle the political cards in Israel to promote the return to power of a right-wing government, predict analysts and commentators.
“The coalition was formed for one and only reason: to prevent Netanyahu from remaining prime minister (…) so it will be difficult for the coalition to survive” if Netanyahu leaves politics, notes Mr. Rosner.
For the time being, the coalition (right, left, center, Arab) led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and the head of diplomacy Yair Lapid is counting on the support of 61 deputies, the very threshold of a majority in Parliament. The government therefore wants a member.
By bringing together all the right-wing deputies, including those from the Likud (right) and religious parties currently in opposition, the right could form the government with around 65 seats.
“From what I see, he will accept a sentencing agreement, because his lawyers have made it clear to him that he cannot hope for anything better,” said Gideon Rahat, professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“If he really leaves politics, the scenarios are endless,” he told AFP, referring to the “struggles” to come in Likud to succeed Mr. Netanyahu.