The border between Israel and Lebanon is the scene of significant tensions as Hezbollah threatens to join Hamas in its war against Israel if the Jewish state’s ground attack on Gaza which has seemed imminent for a week materializes.
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This is what independent journalist Arthur Sarradin, who is in Beirut, says in an interview with LCN.
“The situation is extremely tense,” he said. That is to say that over the past two weeks, we have seen incursion attempts on the Lebanese side by members of Islamic Jihad or Hamas. We also see artillery fire coming back from both sides.”
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s population is divided.
Some would support a Hezbollah offensive, while others already prefer to flee the south of the country.
“A large part of the population in southern Lebanon supports his action,” explains the journalist. For around twenty years now, Hezbollah has somewhat replaced a failed state. He finances schools, he finances hospitals, he has found a way to establish himself in very precarious sections of the population who will support an offensive if it takes place.
“But we were also able to see on the ground many Lebanese fleeing towards the north for fear of a front opening at the border,” he continues. So these are people who especially fear the arrival of a war. In this case, the support is a little more relative.
Hezbollah’s participation in this armed conflict could have serious consequences, both at the geopolitical level in the region and within Lebanon itself.
“It would be catastrophic because it would mean a regionalization of the conflict,” maintains Mr. Sarradin. If Lebanon goes to war, there is a strong chance that other Arab countries will follow, or at least take a position regarding this entry into war, which is very worrying.”
“There is a strong chance that Lebanon will not recover from another war, that it will be one war too many,” he added. Since 2019, the country has been going through one of the worst economic crises in its history. If ever there is a war, it is not certain that there will be money either for the war or for reconstruction. So it would be an absolute tragedy for the country.”
The secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has, however, still not commented on the conflict since the Hamas attack on October 7, which would be a strategic choice.
“Not expressing himself is leaving a sword of Damocles over his situation, that is to say, we know that when he speaks, he will say something important, perhaps – perhaps an entry into war, perhaps the announcement of a de-escalation,” mentions the journalist.
“It also shows that Hezbollah continues to support its ally, Hamas, through tacit pressure on the border to also divert the attention of part of the Israeli army and to do a bit of this blackmail and this way of saying: “If you attack Gaza, we are there, we are positioned,” he adds.
Watch the full interview in the video above.