What does it change ?
For the moment, nothing officially changes, since the procedure is only at the request stage. “It is the judges of the International Criminal Court who decide to issue warrants,” explains François LaRochelle, former diplomat and fellow at the Montreal Institute of International Studies (IEIM), affiliated with the University of Quebec in Montreal. For the moment, the magistrates have not yet made this decision.
On the other hand, if warrants were indeed issued against Benyamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant and Hamas leaders, they would see their freedom of movement disappear.
PHOTO ARCHIVES REUTERS
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last October
As Mr. LaRochelle explains, in principle, if a person subject to a Court warrant is in a member country, that country must arrest him. His movements would thus be greatly affected. According to the former diplomat, it is obvious “that the impact would be much more serious for Netanyahu” than for the Hamas leaders targeted by the same request, most of whom are hiding in the Gaza Strip. “I don’t get the impression they had many plans to visit,” he said.
As for Mr. Netanyahu, who reacted by way of a press release, he “rejected with disgust the Hague prosecutor’s comparison between Israel […] and the mass murderers of Hamas.”
What are the political impacts?
If there are no legal consequences for the moment (since the judges have not yet issued warrants), the political consequences could be important for the Israeli prime minister, according to the two researchers.
Within Israel’s borders, this request for an arrest warrant “risks giving ammunition” to Benjamin Netanyahu’s political adversaries, notably Benny Gantz, according to François Audet. A former general who became head of the center party Hosen L’Yisrael, Mr. Gantz – who is not targeted by the request, even though he is part of the Israeli war cabinet – threatened to resign a few days ago if Benyamin Netanyahu was not proposing a new plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip.
PHOTO TSAFRIR ABAYOV, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Benny Gantz, political opponent of Benjamin Netanyahu
François LaRochelle thinks that the seriousness of the accusations could also work its way into the head of the Israeli Prime Minister. “Perhaps this could make Netanyahu and his Defense Minister think about what happens next, particularly in Rafah. »
The former diplomat argues, however, that the feeling of “national unity” could limit the damage in the immediate future, while many hostages are still prisoners of Hamas in the Gaza Strip – a central issue in the Israeli political landscape in recent years. month.
How is the international community reacting?
Quickly, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, protested against the approach of the ICC prosecutor, describing it as “scandalous”. His Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, speaks more of a “disgrace”. The United States, however, is not a member of the ICC, like Israel, Russia and China, among others.
The reaction, however, is more moderate in ICC member countries. “It traps all the states that support Israel,” and more particularly those that are signatories, according to Mr. Audet. François LaRochelle also thinks that the Canadian government “will be forced to take things easy”, having to juggle its historic support for Israel and its commitment to respecting international law.
France, for its part, expressed its support for the International Criminal Court, “its independence and the fight against impunity in all situations”.
Are there any immediate consequences?
For François Audet, this request, whether it materializes or not, is a “hard blow” to the legitimacy of Benjamin Netanyahu, especially in “countries which did not yet know what footing to dance on” in relation to the war between Israel and Hamas. According to him, this procedure places Benyamin Netanyahu – now a “pariah of international justice” – on a “black list”.
The director of the IEIM also believes that this request risks being a problem for the international reputation of the Jewish state in general, and more particularly for its democratic character.
He explains that the ICC was established “to support states and countries that do not have sufficiently strong or independent domestic justice systems” to bring war criminals to justice, for example.
“Isn’t Israel a little losing its laurels as a democratic country? If the ICC does this, it may be because Israel does not have complete neutrality and impartiality in its judicial system. »