(Beirut) New strikes on the Lebanese capital and on the Houthis in Yemen. Iran toughening its tone. The conflict in the Middle East gained momentum on Sunday, but the possibility of a “total war” remains remote, according to experts.
Bloody toll
Israeli army raids against Hezbollah in Beirut, Lebanon, resulted in the deaths of 109 people in 24 hours. Israel says it has hit “dozens of terrorist targets” of the Shiite movement, in addition to rocket launch sites and military installations.
For the first time since October 2023, the Israeli army struck this Monday morning (local time) in the heart of Beirut, killing four individuals in a residential apartment. The drone attack targeted Jamaa Islamiya, a Lebanese Sunni Islamist group.
PHOTO FADEL ITANI, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Firefighters search for survivors inside a building hit by an Israeli airstrike in the Cola neighborhood of Beirut, September 30, 2024.
This strike in central Beirut killed three members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the group announced in a statement on its official website. “ [Ils] died as martyrs following a cowardly assassination perpetrated by a Zionist occupation plane in Cola [à Beyrouth] “, declared the PFLP shortly after the strike.
Houthis targeted in Yemen
Israel also targeted Houthi rebels in western Yemen, killing 4 and wounding 33. The attack targeted the port of the city of Hodeida and that of Ras Issa. The day before, the Houthis had claimed responsibility for a missile attack on an airport in Tel Aviv, Israel.
PHOTO HASSAN AMMAR, ASSOCIATED PRESS
A man stands among rubble near where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated the day before on Sunday.
The Houthis are allies of Iran, as are the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas. Since the start of the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis have carried out several attacks against Israel, whether by missile fire or drone attack, as well as on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden . With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, the importance of the Houthis has increased for Iran.
“It was predictable that the Houthis were going to want to increase their attacks against Israel,” comments Middle East specialist attached to the University of Ottawa Thomas Juneau. And Israel, well aware of this reality, probably decided preemptively to attack the Houthis right away to send them a very violent, very strong signal that any attack would see a very aggressive response. »
PHOTO ADIL AL-KHAZALI, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Symbolic funeral in Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, on September 29, 2024, for Hassan Nasrallah, killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.
Read “What impact will the death of Hezbollah leader have? »
The Houthis, “very powerful militarily”, will continue their attacks against Israel, he predicts. “The Israel-Yemen front remains less important than those in Gaza and Lebanon, but Israel will need to continue to keep an eye south. »
In the United States, the same speech
Reacting to the raids against Hezbollah and the Houthis, US President Joe Biden reiterated that a “total war in the Middle East must be avoided”. His message has remained essentially the same for almost a year.
“Are we hearing a worn out cassette?” Yes, but at the same time, it is a message that remains important, whose importance is all the more acute today,” believes Thomas Juneau.
“It is a message to Israel, but also to Iran, not to provoke war. Because in the event of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, there is a good chance that the United States will side with Israel. »
The fact remains that in the current context, a “total war remains improbable,” assesses professor of international relations at the University of Ottawa Ruby Dagher. Joe Biden’s interventions are not having the desired effect, according to her.
PHOTO SHAKIL ADIL, REUTERS
Pakistani Shiite Muslims carry flags as they protest the assassination of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on September 29, 2024, in Karachi, Pakistan.
“Every time he speaks out, the violence gets worse,” she notes. Several of these regions where we see violence are indirectly asking Joe Biden to stop talking about a ceasefire, because what happens next is always bloodier. »
And now what will Iran do?
In Iran, the deputy for operations of the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Nilforoushan, died in an Israeli strike on Friday. His death “will not go unanswered,” promised Iran, suggesting revenge.
But does Iran have the strike force necessary to take justice into its own hands? “No, slice Mme Dagher. They have access to bombs, but military analyzes tell us that Iran does not have the infrastructure, the number of people, the training to use them well. »
“They will respond, but it will not be a response equal to what Israel is capable of doing,” she adds.
Iran’s responses could be “indirect”, according to Thomas Juneau, notably through cyberattacks.
A hawk returns to the Israeli Cabinet
On Sunday, the former minister and rival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Gideon Saar entered the Israeli government. In favor of the annexation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, a Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967, Saar is considered a hawk.
His arrival allows Mr. Netanyahu to strengthen his coalition, by adding the support of four additional deputies. “Mr. Netanyahu has a very tense relationship with Yoav Gallant [ministre de la Défense]. By adding the MPs who come with Saar, he gains some flexibility compared to the two far-right parties in his coalition, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Their influence is diluted by the arrival of Saar,” analyzes Mr. Juneau.
“From a purely political point of view, the addition of Saar is certainly a tactical victory,” he considers.
A visit for the cameras
Like the United States, France is trying as best it can to calm the conflict. The head of French diplomacy, Jean-Noël Barrot, visited Beirut on Sunday evening. He became the first senior Western diplomat to visit Lebanon since the intensification of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah.
INFOGRAPHIC CLEA PECULIER, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Map locating strikes carried out on Lebanon and Israel on September 27 and 28, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
It should be seen as a “public relations exercise” for the French audience, which will have little impact on the continuation of the conflict, analyzes Thomas Juneau.
“France continues to want to project the image of an external power that has influence in Lebanon,” he believes. This is a significant step in an extremely complex democratic process, but if the United States has difficulty influencing the course of events, France will have even more difficulty. »
With information from Agence France-Presse