Israel and Hamas at war | A conflagration threatens the entire region

The possibility of a widening of the conflict between Hamas and Israel to the rest of the region increased again on Sunday. If Iran threatens an escalation, its involvement in a short-term direct attack on Israeli territory remains unlikely. Interview with Vahid Yücesoy, doctoral student at the University of Montreal and expert in the political economy of the Middle East.

Why is Iran angry with Israel?

“Because the Iranian regime considers itself the guarantor of the Palestinian people,” answers Vahid Yücesoy straight away, although this positioning is primarily a “question of image”. Since Israel is an ally of the United States, the sworn enemy of Iran, it is also a question for Tehran of “asserting its interests in the region”, adds the doctoral student.

Visiting Qatar on Sunday, the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs warned of a possible “widening of the conflict” if Israel invaded the Gaza Strip. “If the Zionist regime’s attacks on the defenseless population of Gaza continue, no one can guarantee control of the situation,” said Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Could Iran directly attack Israel, even if the two countries do not share a land border?

This is unlikely, at least in the short term, believes Vahid Yücesoy. Iran instead risks using its usual method, that is to say its “proxies”, regional actors who defend its interests and to whom it offers indirect aid, such as weapons or training: the regime Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Hamas, now well known for its bloody attack on Israel on October 7, but especially Hezbollah, its counterpart in Lebanon.

Since the start of this conflict, clashes on the border between Israel and Lebanon have left a dozen dead. Israel also indicated that it had struck Syria with artillery on Saturday evening after air alerts in the part of the Golan Heights annexed by Israel in 1967. An NGO also announced that an “Israeli strike” had hit the airport of ‘Aleppo, leaving five dead.

What would a Hezbollah offensive look like?

So far, bombings from Lebanon have been limited, emphasizes Vahid Yücesoy. “They can increase the pace, but I don’t think there will be Hezbollah soldiers who will land in northern Israel,” adds the expert. Indeed, the support of the Lebanese population, who blame the Islamist group for the country’s catastrophic economic situation, is weak. Hezbollah, against which demonstrations took place in Lebanon before COVID-19, is therefore very cautious in its approach. Furthermore, after the Hamas attack, Israel is on alert and is closely monitoring its northern border, which could cool Hezbollah’s enthusiasm, believes Vahid Yücesoy.

The risks of a widening of the conflict would therefore be lower than Iran suggests?

“Everything will depend on Israel’s ability to take control in the Gaza Strip,” believes Vahid Yücesoy. However, the Israelis do not seem to have a clear plan to eradicate Hamas there,” underlines the doctoral student. “There are a lot of question marks. So if the conflict continues and Israel shows signs of weakening, Iran and Hezbollah may see this as an opportunity to interfere in the conflict. “Iran cannot remain idle” in the face of the situation in Gaza, insisted the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in an interview with the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera on Sunday.

Could Israel really be so weakened after an attack on the Gaza Strip?

This scenario represents “a lot of uncertainty.” “The situation could change,” warns Vahid Yücesoy. Not so long ago, “we would never have predicted Israel’s weakness against Hamas, it took everyone by surprise,” he recalls.

With Agence France-Presse