The Islamic State (IS) group may consider the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas as an “apostate”, its attack on October 7 forces the jihadist center to regain leading legitimacy in its war against Israel and its supporters.
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This attack, the bloodiest in the history of Israel (1,140 dead, 250 hostages), permanently placed the Gaza Strip and Hamas at the heart of the priorities of chancelleries around the world, relegating IS to second place in despite the intense activity of its subsidiaries.
“This puts considerable pressure on IS to remain relevant,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the NGO Counter-Extremism Project (CEP). “Without the war in Gaza, ISIS would make the headlines,” he adds to AFP. However, “if no one talks about you, you don’t exist.”
Associated unequivocally with the actions of Hamas was not an option: IS, Sunni and Salafist, abhors pro-Iranian Hamas and close to the Muslim Brotherhood. Especially since the latter’s fight is centered on the quest of the Palestinian people when ISIS wants to reestablish a global caliphate to better conquer the world.
Unlike Al-Qaeda which immediately welcomed the Hamas operation, IS therefore took the time to carefully calibrate its remarks.
“In the Middle East, the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend,” notes Laurence Bindner, co-founder of JOS Project, a platform for analyzing online extremist propaganda.
At the beginning of January, the jihadist center claimed responsibility for the double attack in Kerman, Iran, where 89 people were killed. Tehran has nevertheless sworn to destroy Israel.
But IS, rather than choosing between its enemies, “adopts another path by positioning itself simultaneously on several fronts: one against the Jews and supporters of Israel, another against Iran and its allies.”
“An opening”
At the end of October, in its official organ al-Naba, the group published a text entitled “Practical ways to support Muslims in Palestine”, inviting its supporters to attack Israel, its Western supporters and Jews around the world.
In early January, its spokesperson, Abu Houdhayfah Al-Ansari, posted a recording online called “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them.”
“Israel is not just a state but a global Jewish project and it is into this battle that IS sympathizers want to rush into,” assures Laurence Bindner. “This justifies attacking Israel, Jews and all those who support the project, including Arab states that normalize relations with Israel.”
In response to October 7, Israel launched a vast military operation on Gaza, which has left nearly 23,500 dead to date according to the Hamas Ministry of Health, the majority of them women and children.
ISIS can draw powerful momentum from war, believes Lucas Webber, co-founder of the specialist site Militant Wire. “It’s an opening for greater relevance and success,” he assures.
Its enmity toward Hamas “does not mean that jihadists will give up taking advantage of the fighting for their own goals – pushing their sympathizers to strike the West, inciting the undecided to act and radicalizing a growing potential of angry individuals “.
Competition
The fact remains that to defend its claimed position as world leader in jihadism, IS needs visibility. Several attacks or projects, of limited scale, have been recorded in recent weeks in Europe.
In November, an Algerian suspected of links to ISIS was arrested in Italy. The following month, an Arabic teacher and imam at a Madrid mosque was arrested on suspicion of recruiting young people for the group. And a Franco-Iranian killed a young German-Filipino tourist in Paris and injured two other people, pledging allegiance to the power station.
“An operation in Europe would be necessary” for the IS, fears Hans-Jakob Schindler, who affirms that the group has “established networks there for a long time already. They now need to do something to put themselves back at the heart of the agenda.”
And this, on a planetary level. “IS leaders consider that the priority at this stage is to establish and increase its influence, in the Middle East or Central Africa,” Eva Koulouriotis, an independent expert on the region, told AFP.
“The competition is based on who can gain the greatest popularity within Islamic societies and, consequently, attract more members.”