is Valérie Pécresse’s program in line with France’s climate objectives?

This article is part of a special operation, in collaboration with Les Shifters, an association of volunteers who support the think tank The Shift Project, a specialist in energy transition.

Facing global warming, the next President of the Republic will have to make important decisions. His mandate will end in 2027, three years before 2030, the fateful date by which France must have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% to respect the Paris climate agreement.

To do this, he or she will find on his desk the national low-carbon strategy (SNBC), an official document that describes, sector by sector – transport, buildings, agriculture, industry, etc. – the major efforts to be made. A roadmap that successive governments have struggled to respect it since its establishment in 2015.

Are the candidates’ programs compatible with these objectives? This is the question that franceinfo wanted to answer, a few days before the first round of the 2022 presidential election. This article presents a summary of the analysis made by Les Shifters of the program of Valérie Pécresse, the Republican candidate. You can find their full review on their website.

Does its program respect the Paris agreement?

Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, such is the ambition displayed by Valérie Pécresse. To do this, its program covers most of the sectors of the National Low Carbon Strategy. There are several objectives consistent with those announced in the text: the transition of electricity production, the decarbonization of transport, the renovation of housing, the control of the carbon footprint of products imported into the EU or the evolution of agricultural practices.

However, The Shifters see coverage sometimes “partial” objectives. For example, “agricultural policy does not address the change in agricultural practices necessary to preserve soils and reduce emissions [et] the decline in the consumption of meat products”, they note. In the industrial sector, Valérie Pécresse is not interested in the decarbonization of the most emitting sectors.

Certain measures proposed also run counter to the objectives set, such as the guarantee of a low electricity price, the abolition of the 40 km ceiling for mileage allowances between home and work, which “does not encourage the reduction of the use of private vehicles”or “the reduction of standards in many sectors and the relaxation of the rules of non-artificialization of soils”.

“Without a clear strategy presented, the candidate’s ability to achieve her carbon neutrality objective raises questions.”

The Shifters

about Valérie Pécresse’s program

What does it offer sector by sector?

Transport. On this sector responsible for 31% of national emissions, Valérie Pécresse offers measures for all means of transport. On the road, the candidate wants to ban the sale of new vehicles running only on fossil fuels from 2035 and hybrids in 2040. In the air, she wants to develop biofuels, hydrogen and electricity for the aviation and logistics. On the rails, it offers a TGV investment plan and regional lines.

Buildings. While the building is the source of 17% of French emissions, Valérie Pécresse wants to double the pace of housing renovations, without specifying how much she intends to invest. It also wants to promote the transformation of vacant offices into housing, thus reducing the construction of new buildings. Corn “Overall, Valérie Pécresse’s measures do not sweep away all the orientations planned by the SNBC”observe The Shifters.

Agriculture. To reduce the climate impact of this sector responsible for 19% of French emissions, Valérie Pécresse “goes through research and technological solutions”, according to The Shifters, who cite the example of the investments proposed by the candidate to seek alternatives to agricultural phyto-sanitary products. She also hears “give farmers the opportunity to sell carbon credits” based on the services they provide to ecosystems.

Forests. The candidate LR evokes a fund of 150 million euros to bring out a wood sector in France. Corn “depending on the activities it encourages, this could lead to overexploitation of the forest“relativize The Shifters.

Industry. In terms of industry, a sector which represents 19% of emissions in France, “the spirit of the program seems above all to develop an incentive policy without directing the choices towards decarbonization”, note The Shifters. As for relocations, the candidate wishes to create large French and European companies based on “technological solutions with no direct link to decarbonization”as in the sector of artificial intelligence, space, autonomous vehicles or batteries of the future.

Energies. On this subject, source of 10% of emissions in France, “the candidate’s orientations are consistent with the SNBC’s objective of decarbonizing electricity production by 2050”. Valérie Pécresse wants a revival of nuclear power – with an extension of the existing fleet, the construction of six new EPRs and the development of renewable energies. But the program also cites hydrogen, “technological solution still under development”according to The Shifters, and is not interested in energy efficiency or sobriety.

Waste. Two measures concern this sector, responsible for 4% of emissions in France: the end of single-use plastics by 2027 and a financial incentive for the recycling of telephones and computers.

Is the implementation of these measures realistic ?

“The lack of precision on the methods of implementation and the absence of governance questions the ability of this program to achieve the ambition of the candidate”, worry The Shifters. While Valérie Pécresse sets a time horizon for transport-related measures, the dates are “particularly vague for other sectors”adds the association.

Candidate LR does not plan a way to have these measures accepted by the population, by raising awareness among citizens, for example. And no method of evaluating public policies is envisaged. Moreover, Valérie Pécresse does not tackle in her program the “financial support for projects that go against the reduction of emissions”report The Shifters.

In addition, Valérie Pécresse often relies on still immature technological solutions, such as “green” hydrogen, biofuel or agricultural innovations. And “sobriety measures are not at the heart of the candidate’s program”, note The Shifters. And to conclude: “Sprogramming therefore presents uncertainties.”

You can find in the links below the climate analyzes of the programs of the other candidates:

>> Ona scrutinized the programs of the presidential candidates to see if they respect the Paris agreement

>> The programs of Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, John Lassalle, Marine Le Pen, Emanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel and Eric Zemmour are they in line with France’s climate objectives?