is the Russian economy healthy, as Jordan Bardella points out?

“Russia is drowning in cash. The trade surplus has doubled and its hydrocarbon revenues have increased by 40%”said Jordan Bardella on BFMTV, September 4. According to Member of the European Parliament for the National Rally (RN)the sanctions against the Russian economy are not working. Indeed, the Russian surplus reached records with more than 70 billion dollars in the second quarter. In addition, energy revenues have exploded compared to 2021: 625 million euros per day on average in May 2021, compared to 750 million in June 2022.

However, these figures do not mean that the Russian economy is healthy. While the trade surplus is skyrocketing, exports are plummeting. Also, the GDP is down sharply: -6%, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). And even -8% according to the Russian Ministry of Economy. After Western sanctions, 1,200 foreign companies left the territory, representing 40% of activity according to the American university Yale. In the face of these sanctions, hydrocarbon-related activity keeps the Russian economy afloat. “European sanctions have weakened the Russian economyunderlines Julien Vercueilspecialist in Russia and professor of economics at theInalco. But it should be noted that the observed fall in economic activity is not of the order of magnitude imagined, but it is about half as much. Lare oil and gas revenues mitigate the damage, but the Russian economy is in recession, contrary to what the member for RN.