Is the German coalition fraying?

Focus today in “European Micro” on Germany, which currently finds itself in a situation of budget freeze, with Kai Littmann, director of the site eurojournalist.eu.

In European microphone, we ask ourselves the following question today: will the German government, the coalition that is in power, hold on? This coalition tripartite adopted on Monday, November 27, a supplementary budget for 2023, to emerge from the unprecedented budget crisis, caused by a court decision which led the government to freeze the expenditure incurred.

franceinfo: The liberals are perhaps starting to give up, what could happen?

Kai Littmann: Yes, indeed, Germany currently finds itself in an almost unknown situation, a budget freeze, a situation which is especially experienced by the United States. The Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, the boss of the FDP, therefore of the liberals, must find 60 billion euros, we don’t really know where. And suddenly, the base begins to revolt.

The base is starting to revolt, are we talking about a referendum?

We are talking about a vote which was requested by 500 members of the party, in the federations of the Land of Hesse and Bavaria, and 500 votes are enough to force the hand of the party to hold a referendum, a national vote on the question : should the FDP remain in the ruling coalition in Berlin?

And if the result is yes, will we have to leave the coalition?

This is not obligatory for the party leadership. On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine a situation where the national leadership of the party continues to remain in this coalition, against an explicit vote which demands exit from the coalition. It must also be said that this coalition does not work at all between the Greens, the SPD, the FDP who, together today in the polls, are at 31 to 32%. So, there are two thirds of Germans who would like a change in government.

The FDP are the liberals, the SPD are the social democrats, what can happen if the coalition falls?

I think that if the coalition falls, there is only one path which would be the remake of the grand coalition. Because everyone wants to avoid early elections today. The far right is very violent in Germany, the AFD has firmly established itself in second place in the German political landscape. In all the polls they are 21 to 22%, and early elections could produce a result, as we saw a few days ago in the Netherlands.

So, there will certainly be no early elections in Germany, but a recomposition of the ruling coalition. The CDU is well ahead in the polls. But even such a grand coalition would be very difficult to implement. And there, currently, there is a big question mark about what happens next. In Germany, this collapse of the German government began quite a while ago.

The CDU are the conservatives, perhaps they do not at all want to join a coalition with the social democrats of the SPD. Because there are also the Greens?

They would certainly not join a coalition with the SPD, not with the Greens. They would certainly be ready to take charge of a new coalition under their leadership, with the SPD as junior partner. Would the SPD work in such a constellation? Nothing is less sure. So, it must be said that it is quite chaotic at the moment.

In relation to this chaotic situation as you call it, is the AFD, therefore the nationalists we call the extreme right, are the AFD ready?

Yes, they are ready. It’s a bit of a situation like in other countries, where they keep a low profile, they don’t express themselves too much. They are simply waiting for the other parties to tear themselves apart, and they will be ready when the time comes. And that, too, is something that’s rather scary.

In Germany, there will be regional elections in Thuringia next year. The AFD is well ahead in the polls, and I think that is a prospect that is anything but encouraging. But I think that the month of January in Germany, politically speaking, will be very eventful.

Which doesn’t bode well for the European elections next June?

Europe, currently, is much less well regarded in Germany, which was always the country in Europe which had the strongest support for the European idea and European institutions.

Today, more and more people, also in Germany, are questioning the functioning of the institutions, and I think that the European elections, in June 2024, risk being a very unpleasant surprise for the Europe.