This estimate comes from the Russian edition of the magazine Forbes. According to the review, 700,000 Russians have already left the country since the mobilization was announced on September 21. The magazine is based on two anonymous sources in the Kremlin: one which evokes a million departures, and the other which speaks rather of 600 to 700,000 Russians concerned. It is this second figure that the media rather retains.
>> War in Ukraine: find the latest information in our live
An estimate that seems credible, when we already know that Kazakhstan alone claims that 200,000 Russians entered its territory in just ten days. The same number is mentioned for Georgia. In the European Union, the figure put forward is 66,000 entries last week.
These 700,000 departures come on top of a first wave. That of the Russians who had fled the country after the start of the war on February 24. It is very complicated to obtain reliable data from the Moscow side. Rosstat, the official statistics body, for its part spoke of 200,000 departures over the first six months of the year. So it’s probably a lot more in reality.
This figure of 700,000 people represents 0.5% of the Russian population. Presented in this way, it does not look huge, and it is therefore difficult to speak of a mass exodus. That said, if we consider that emigrants are often young, of working age and often trained, these cascading departures can become problematic for the country. A recently released study estimated that 30% of Russian IT and technology companies have left Russia. Nevertheless, many of these workers continue to work remotely, from abroad. This is also why they were the first and the most numerous to leave for this sector.
Many Russians who choose to leave their country first go where they can, rather than where they want. The priority destinations are therefore those which do not require visas and where the formalities are light. We can cite the Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia or Turkey. The first three are former countries of the USSR bloc. Many inhabitants speak Russian there and a strong Russian community is present there, which makes the arrival easier.
Those who can also come within the European Union, but the conditions are more restrictive. They must have at least a Schengen visa to enter. Not to mention that the cost of travel is very high: you have to fly via Istanbul (Turkey), Yerevan (Armenia) or Belgrade (Serbia), since the EU’s land borders with Russia are now all closed. Tickets have become overpriced. Then, they will have to obtain a long residence permit, one way or another. This last step can be very complicated, France has for example announced that it will examine the requests of the Russians on a case-by-case basis.