The objectives are clear: by 2050, France must have achieved carbon neutrality, i.e. not emitting more greenhouse gases (GHGs) than the planet can absorb.. In nine years, these GHG emissions, the main culprits of global warming, must be reduced by 55% on a European scale, compared to their 1990 level. These ambitions, the only ones capable of preventing a further catastrophic increase temperatures of 2 ° C, require unprecedented efforts on the part of the richest countries on the planet: in a few years, these powerful economies – the countries of the G20 account for three quarters of global GHG emissions – must abandon fossil fuels in favor of so-called clean energies. An operation long designated by a vague expression: “the energy transition”.
No more oil? “Out” the coal? Place for renewable and carbon-free energies? This is a ready-made solution. Problem: this change is not that easy to achieve. Such a revolution takes time, is expensive and requires rethinking our consumption patterns. As COP26 opens on November 1, will we be able to cross the finish line before it’s too late?
A never-before-seen challenge
Imagine a mural on the wall of a classroom or in a history book: for centuries, wood has been used to heat us. Then, at the dawn of the industrial revolution, coal ushered in the era of the machine. In the 19th century, petroleum, in the 20th century nuclear power, then, at the start of the 21st century, renewable energies (wind, solar, etc.) would make the planet go round. Historian of science, technology and the environment, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz stops us immediately: humanity has never known such “energy transitions”. Historically, on a global scale, which matters for the climate, we do not switch from one energy to another, we accumulate them. “Rather than transitions, we should speak of energetic additions or better, of energetic symbioses”.
“In England, at the start of the 20th century, more wood was being consumed than it was burned in the middle of the 18th century, just to afforest the walls of galleries dug to extract coal”, he explains. Likewise, “Oil has allowed the car to flourish, but a lot of coal is needed to produce vehicles, refineries, and rebuild roads”. And today, the deployment of infrastructure essential for the production of renewable energies requires the consumption of fossil fuels.
Thus, increasing the share of renewable and carbon-free energies in the energy mix is not synonymous with a decrease in the use of fossil fuels in absolute terms. “The problem is that we look at the rise of renewable energies in recent years and we say to ourselves: ‘Great, the transition is at work’. But this rise is done on a fossil basis which remains fairly stable, continues the historian. Looking at the curves and congratulating yourself on the increase in the share of renewables is one thing, but if you don’t reduce fossil fuels at the same time, it doesn’t work. ”
We are now talking about “decarbonization”, confirms Carole Mathieu, responsible for European policies at the Energy & Climate Center of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “The first determinant are emissions [qu’il faut réduire au maximum] and less the composition of the energy mix. “
A race against time
Do the French consume less fossil fuels? To find out, we can look at our carbon footprint, which accounts for the GHGs induced by our consumption, taking into account the emissions associated with the production of imported goods and services. “The carbon footprint of the French experienced a peak in emissions in 2005, with 11.8 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person per year. Today, it is 9.3 tonnes”, summarizes Baptiste Andrieu, of the Shift Project, a think tank which is considering the establishment of a economy freed from carbon constraints.
“This represents a drop of 20% in fifteen years, which is not negligible, he recognizes, but very far from sufficient to achieve the objectives set in the National Low Carbon Strategy, drafted in 2019. To achieve this, we need a 6.5% drop in emissions per year and per person. However, we are rather on a decrease of 1.5% per year currently. ” In other words, the efforts must be immediately multiplied by four.
“Especially since the longer we delay taking up this challenge, the more difficult it will be, since, to compensate for this delay, it would be necessary to decrease emissions by 7% per year, then 8%, then 9%, etc.”, continues Baptiste Andrieu.
An industrial bet on the future
Will we be able to accelerate the movement? This is the big question. In France, where nuclear power – now supplemented by renewable energies – was deployed in the 1960s and 1970s, people pride themselves on already producing essentially carbon-free electricity. But electricity only represents 25% of the energy used in our country and entire sectors of the economy remain to be decarbonized – transport, construction, industry and agriculture. “In France, transport is the only sector that has seen its emissions grow since 1990. In agriculture, which represents around 20% of emissions, they are stagnating, or at least not falling as they should”, details Carole Mathieu, from Ifri.
In terms of transport, “the horizon has brightened with the development of the electric vehicle, which begins to impose itself, at least for road transport “, she explains. But for maritime or air transport, carbon-free solutions are not mature, continues the expert. “We still do not know how to make steel or cement at competitive prices without fossil fuels, the same for nitrogen fertilizers”, notes for his part Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. Experts therefore identify incompressible emissions, at least in the short term.
This places us face to face with a double constraint: on the one hand, massively develop technologies such as wind and solar power and, on the other hand, fund research and development in promising technologies, such as carbon-free hydrogen or biofuels. Thus, the French recovery plan unveiled in 2020 devotes 46% of its amount to the decarbonisation of the economy. However, to keep our foot on the accelerator, these colossal investments must be sustained over time, underlines the IInstitute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri) in a report published in September.
This implies realizing real industrial bets: “We have an interest in making choices and not dispersing ourselves, because public money is scarce and these infrastructures are very expensive. To take the example of road transport, we cannot simultaneously deploy a network of charging stations for electric vehicles and one for vehicles running on hydrogen, biogas or other possible solutions, explains Carole Mathieu. States have no other choice than to establish a strategy and to stick to it: not to be locked into a technological scheme that would risk being obsolete and to be able to make choices at the right time, it is all the difficulty. ” The specialist also points “brakes on acceptability”. She cites here the mobilization of citizens against offshore wind power, a technology massively developed by our neighbors in northern Europe and on which France is lagging behind.
A questioning of our consumer society
According to the latest report from the High Council for the Climate, the building sector has recently succeeded in reducing its CO2 emissions. Trolling road transport is counting on the rapid development of electricity to reverse the trend. But what about the most polluting industries? Agriculture? Air transport? “There is this paradigm which is to say to yourself: ‘We are waiting and we will end up finding a technological solution. better, believes Baptiste Andrieu. There is nothing to indicate that it is technically impossible to develop these energies in the years to come. But it is immediately that we must reduce emissions. “ From where “the obligation to go through sobriety: consume less energygie, and therefore, potentially, consume less goods and services “, he continues.
The idea has long been the subject of a radical trial, especially when it is expressed through the concept of degrowth. The climate emergency has made it mainstream. In its report presenting the trajectories that would make it possible to achieve the objectives at the global level by 2050, the International Energy Agency thus counted on a significant decrease in energy demand thanks to energy efficiency (via, for example, the renovation of housing), but also “thanks to sobriety”. Or behavioral changes adopted on a large scale. In the transport sector, this consists in banning the shortest flights, favoring the bicycle for short distances or reducing the speed of road traffic.
For the historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, the success of the mission inevitably requires a review of our priorities: “If we produce clean, renewable energy to produce more electric cars, then we continue to build roads, need cement, steel, etc. If we use this energy to bring to market products that fuel a consumer society that relies on all these materials that need to emit carbon, so it’s lost. ” Decarbonizing energy is essential to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Choosing where and to whom to attribute this energy will be just as important.