This is a first in the European Union. Austria established a lockdown for people not vaccinated against Covid-19 on Monday, November 15. “The situation is serious (…). We do not take this measure with a light heart, but unfortunately it is necessary “, justified Sunday the Austrian chancellor, Alexander Schallenberg, pointing a rate of vaccination “shamefully low” in his country.
Concretely, the two million people affected by this confinement will not have the right to leave their homes except for shopping, sports or for medical care. Faced with the increase in contaminations in Europe, other countries, such as Germany, are also taking strong decisions to encourage the last reluctant to be vaccinated. Are similar measures possible in France? Response elements.
From a health point of view: the situation in the two countries is not comparable
“We are not out of the epidemic, neither in France nor elsewhere, the time has not come to let our guard down”, warned Jean Castex on Friday. However, if France sees its epidemic indicators start to rise again, the situation is, for the moment, not comparable with the situation in Austria. In both countries, there are more than 10,000 new cases daily on average over the last seven days. But France has nearly eight times as many inhabitants. The dynamic is also different, while the incidence rate in France has risen to more than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on Monday (with departments such as Haute-Corse or Bouches-du-Rhône where it takes off. again), compared to more than 850 cases in Austria (in English). On Saturday, the country also recorded a record of contamination since the start of the pandemic, with more than 13,000 new cases. (in English).
As for the number of hospitalized patients, “who are overwhelmingly unvaccinated people”, “we feel a shudder” since the beginning of November, but “we are still far from the previous waves”, commented Monday on franceinfo Francois Braun, President of Samu urgences de France (SUdF).
“The fifth wave will be that of the unvaccinated and fragile people ‘not recalled’ [qui n’ont pas reçu de nouvelle dose de rappel]. Each injection takes a patient away from the hospital and collectively brings us closer to a peaceful winter “, warned on Tuesday Gabriel Attal, the spokesman of the government, traveling in the Hauts-de-Seine. In terms of vaccination, 75% of the French population has benefited from a complete regimen. A figure higher than 65% of people fully vaccinated in Austria.
From a political point of view: the track of a reconfinement ruled out (for the moment)
“We must do everything to avoid a new confinement”, hammered Bruno Le Maire Sunday on BFMTV. Asked about the containment for the unvaccinated established in Austria, the Minister of the Economy assured that it was “whatever we want to avoid”. “For the moment, it is absolutely out of the question to speak of re-containment”, meanwhile said Gabriel Attal, Saturday evening on the set of the show “We are live “, on France 2.
“With vaccination we built a wall, we must now prevent it from cracking. “
The government spokesperson, @GabrielAttal is tonight in #OEED and reacts to the worsening health situation in France ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/GyRlefL2gB
– We Are Live (@ OnEstEnDirectF2) November 13, 2021
“The objective, and the method we have used, is that of vaccination and booster”, for his part underlined Christophe Castaner, Monday on France 2. The president of the LREM group in the National Assembly specified that “620,000 appointments” have been taken in this direction since Emmanuel Macron’s speech last Tuesday. During his speech, the Head of State himself launched an appeal to be vaccinated to the six million people “who have not received any dose”, on behalf of “the spirit of responsibility”.
If an Austrian-style confinement is therefore not under consideration for the moment, the government is not closing any doors. “Nothing should ever be excluded on principle. This epidemic continues to surprise the whole world”, cautiously advanced the government spokesperson.
From a legal point of view: a risk of breach of equality
During previous epidemic waves, the possibility of confinement of the oldest and most fragile had already provoked lively debates. In November, thehe Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, had ruled out this track “for reasons of feasibility and solidarity between generations”.
Legally, a possible confinement applied only to unvaccinated people would risk creating a breach of equality. “I do not think that we can take differentiated measures according to the vaccination status, because the only differentiation that allows the state of health emergency is territorial”, estimates from BFMTV Jean-Philippe Derosier, specialist in constitutional law. “There is a real question of democracy and social cohesion with this type of measure”, also ruled Monday on franceinfo Sandra Hoibian, director of the society pole at Crédoc (Research center for the study and observation of living conditions).
The researcher pointed out a risk of fracture within French society. An analysis shared by epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, with 20 minutes : “Increasing the constraints on the population that refuses the vaccine would be likely to radicalize it. Without however succeeding in making it change its mind.”
From a scientific point of view: the effectiveness of such a measure is not yet known
Finally, it remains to be seen whether a containment of the unvaccinated can be really effective in containing the epidemic. In Austria, theThe government will assess the effect of these restrictions in ten days, said Health Minister Wolfgang Mückstein. “From a medical point of view”, this measure has “sense”, pleads Gilles Pialoux. “It must be explained that the filling of hospital services, the filling of resuscitations and deaths are very mainly due to the unvaccinated”, recalls the head of the infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital in Paris, interviewed on BFMTV.
“Of course, coercive measures against them are likely to protect them and reduce the burden of hospitalizations”, abounds Pascal Crépey. “But they could not make it possible to stop the epidemic dynamic, since vaccination protects only 50% of the transmission of the virus “, adds the teacher-researcher in the columns of 20 minutes.
“No measure is completely satisfactory”, for his part estimated Monday on franceinfo François Braun, president of Samu emergencies in France, who advocates more for a “association” of several sanitary measures. Thereby, Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health at Lille University Hospital, lists with the Parisien (subscribers article) a list of alternative solutions such as going to the unvaccinated, keeping the mask at school, ventilating confined spaces as much as possible or even renewing barrier gestures.