After Nagorno-Karabakh, is Armenia in turn threatened by Azerbaijan? France is worried about this and agrees to “future contracts for the delivery of military equipment”.
It is not only Nagorno-Karabakh that interests Baku, the Azerbaijani capital. After the 2020 ceasefire, Azerbaijan never stopped its attacks and little by little, quietly, it nibbled away 150 square kilometers of Armenian land, without any international reaction.
President Aliyev does not hide it, he also wants to regain control of an entire area in the south to restore the continuity of his territory, today cut in two, and go to the border with his Turkish ally. From a geographical point of view, from a geopolitical point of view, Azerbaijan has every interest in continuing to wage war against its neighbor.
Armenia, a French problem for the world
If French diplomacy gets involved, wanting to help Armenia ensure its defense, it is because after the 1915 genocide, several tens of thousands of Armenians settled in France and this diaspora grew stronger. Paris, sensitive to the defense of Eastern Christians, has always been at the forefront, for example when it came to demanding a meeting of the UN Security Council to denounce the aggressiveness of Azerbaijan.
Showing humanitarian, diplomatic and military support today makes perfect sense,”without any spirit of climbing“, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna, present in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, Tuesday October 3. “The trip I am making today is a way of marking France’s extreme vigilance regarding threatening or considering undermining Armenia’s sovereignty.“.
Europe divided in the face of the gas supplier
But France is almost the only one to be so moved. A member of the government regrets “indifference“other Europeans.”They tend to think that, because we have a large Armenian diaspora, this is a problem that falls to France! People’s minds are much more focused on Ukraine.”.
Brussels is weakly considering reviewing its ties with Baku if the crisis worsens… but the document from the diplomatic service consulted by the Reuters agency does not say anything very precise. Above all, he does not mention the question of energies at all.
On this subject, the 27 are divided. France, Germany and the Netherlands are ready to bang their fists on the table, but others, like Austria and Hungary, do not want to touch deliveries, nor get angry with the one who, since The invasion of Ukraine replaced Russia as their supplier of gas and oil. We will have to “dose” recognizes a source at the Quai d’Orsay: “Be neither too soft, to prevent Aliev from feeling like he is growing wings, nor too hard, to avoid finding himself isolated.”
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The anger of Moscow
Russia still shines with its absence on this subject. Moscow is linked to Yerevan by a defense agreement but Vladimir Putin never triggered it, nor did the Russian soldiers responsible for maintaining peace in Nagorno-Karabakh move. Putin is probably irritated by this former ally who prefers to look towards Europe.
On Tuesday, October 3, Armenia officially joined the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant against the Russian president. Moscow’s anger is another good reason for France not to remain alone in its support for Armenia.