Is France heading for a standoff over pension reform?

From three o’clock in the morning, the drivers of the Keolis buses in Haute-Normandie were hard at work. Not to pick up passengers, but to establish blockades on roundabouts. In several places, they set tires on fire while arresting motorists. “At noon, we’ll grill merguez sausages,” said one of them. In a France at a standstill, such scenes were repeated everywhere on Tuesday.

On this sixth day of protest against the pension reform, the mobilization was there. More than 1.28 million demonstrators (3.5 million according to the organizers) marched in more than 300 cities to protest against the extension of the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. A figure slightly up compared to the great mobilization of January 31 (1.27 million). Even if they largely paralyzed transport and public services, the number of strikers was nevertheless down at the SNCF and in schools.

“We have succeeded in our bet, which was to show the determination of the world of work,” said Laurent Berger, general secretary of the first trade union in France, the CFDT. Welcoming a “historic mobilization”, he reiterated that the government “cannot remain deaf” to this call.

“We are not immune to a flash of lucidity from Emmanuel Macron”, quipped the president of the CFE-CGC executives union, François Hommeril. According to him, “if we press where it hurts, we may have a better chance that he finally agrees to come to his senses and withdraw his project”.

A final showdown?

Just over a week before the final adoption of the reform by elected officials, this new showdown was intended to be the start of a showdown that could last all week. The most combative unions, such as those of the SNCF and the RATP, have called for the strike to be renewed. CGT-Chimie also announced a blockage of fuel deliveries to all refineries. This fall, such commando actions had led to shortages at many gas stations.

The main leaders may stick to a moderate speech, two days ago, the secretaries of five CGT federations called for “bringing the French economy to its knees”.

Will this happen in the days to come? Union leaders are all the more motivated when they express a large majority opinion. According to all the polls, this reform is indeed rejected by more than 65% of French people. They would even be 59% to support the action of the unions in order to put “France at a standstill”. Paradoxically, a majority of French people are also convinced that the government will not back down.

As in previous mobilizations, it was in the regions that the demonstrators were the most numerous. In the cities of Marseille, Bordeaux, Nantes and Le Havre, processions broke records. Even a small town of 7,000 inhabitants like Guingamp, in the Côtes-d’Armor, saw several thousand people parade. In these small towns, farmers (who often don’t retire until age 67) were often at the forefront.

“If you put 64, we will make you 68 again”, we heard in the Parisian procession in allusion to May 68. The slogans expressed both the rejection of the pension reform and the exasperation with regard to life. dear and of the current government. With 81,000 demonstrators in Paris (700,000 according to the organizers), the Parisian mobilization was also slightly up.

As usual, at the head of the procession, “black blocks” attacked shop windows, the police and even the car of a member of SOS Médecins.

The project examined in the Senate

Meanwhile, at the Luxembourg Palace, senators were preparing to consider and adopt the controversial article 7 of the bill, which is to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. The examination of the other articles will continue throughout the week, after the National Assembly was the object of a real obstruction on the part of the radical left party La France insoumise (LFI), which presented nearly 20,000 amendments.

Despite everything, the law could be adopted as early as March 16. This should be done either by a majority vote, if enough members of the Les Républicains (LR) party vote with the majority, or by an exceptional procedure called 49-3 which allows the government to pass the text without a vote by committing its responsibility during a possible motion of censure.

“Not a voice should be missing from the Renaissance group”, Emmanuel Macron’s party, said its president in the Assembly, Aurore Bergé, who pointed to the disaffection of certain elected officials, such as former minister Barbara Pompili. Dissidents will even be expelled from the party.

At LR, several deputies grouped around Aurélien Pradié could also vote against or abstain. For his part, Minister Olivier Dussopt recalled that the current pension scheme would incur a deficit of 13.5 billion euros per year in 2030. A figure disputed by demographers like Hervé Le Bras.

“It is a day of truth. We are in a social mobilization like we haven’t seen for 30 or 40 years”, estimated the leader of LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose parliamentary blocking strategy was repudiated by the CGT. According to him, the government has no other way out than the referendum, the withdrawal of the reform or the dissolution. The National Rally, which could not be more discreet during these demonstrations, had moreover been the first to propose the holding of a referendum.

Barring a strike on the scale of that of 1995, which led to a dissolution, it is hard to see in Paris how the government of Emmanuel Macron could back down. “The government could not survive a failure of this reform,” said analyst Christophe Barbier on BFMTV. “If this text is not voted on, Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term ends. […] Even if this project is poorly built, poorly constructed and poorly explained. »

Will the blocking movement become more radical this week? This is what many observers fear. In the meantime, the demonstrators met again on Saturday.

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