Iranian strikes against Israel | A shadow war revealed in broad daylight

The 50-year-old “shadow war” between Israel and Iran has turned into a direct confrontation. This Sunday (local time), Iran launched a drone and ballistic missile attack against Israel, in response to a strike against its consulate in Damascus, Syria. An escalation of this conflict which could metamorphose into a regional war in the Near and Middle East.

This is the first direct military attack by the Islamic Republic of Iran targeting the territory of Israel.

According to the Israeli military, Iran launched a swarm of 200 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the majority of which were intercepted. However, an air base in the Negev was reportedly hit by the strikes.

Even as the missiles were taking off, Iranian-allied militias launched their own attacks against Israel: Yemeni Houthis launched drones toward Israeli territory, while Lebanese Hezbollah fired rockets into the Israeli-occupied Golan twice in the space of a few hours. The second attack comes “in response to Israeli night raids which targeted several villages and localities,” Hezbollah said in a statement.

Several detonations were heard in the sky over Jerusalem, according to Agence France-Presse. Warning sirens sounded across the city, as well as in the Negev region and the north of the country, according to the Israeli army.

A counterattack

Iran’s mission to the United Nations announced on social media that its offensive on Israeli soil was a response to the strike that destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1^er April, and left 16 dead, including two senior officers of the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic.

Iran has accused Israel of being responsible for the strike, but the latter has not confirmed or denied being responsible. “The Iranians felt humiliated and decided for a rare time to respond to Israel,” explains Sami Aoun, Middle East specialist and member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.

Iran’s mission said it was acting in accordance with the UN charter on self-defense and suggested the standoff with Israel could end if the Jewish state did not counterattack.

“The issue can be considered closed,” the mission said, adding, however, that “if the Israeli regime makes another mistake, Iran’s response will be much more severe.”

According to Sami Aoun, the strike against the consulate in Damascus aimed to provoke Iran, which maintains close ties with Hamas, the Palestinian armed group against which Israel has been waging a bloody war since October 7.

Neither the United States nor Western countries publicly condemned the strike on the consulate in the days that followed. However, “attacking an embassy is highly unusual, and absolutely unacceptable under international law,” recalls Professor Hani Faris, specialist in Middle East politics at the University of British Columbia.

Attacks condemned

Joe Biden condemned the attacks and reiterated his “unwavering” support for Israel on Saturday (Washington time). The American president said in a statement that he would convene his G7 counterparts this Sunday to coordinate a diplomatic response to “Iran’s brazen” attack.

Justin Trudeau, for his part, condemned the Iranian attacks. “We support Israel’s right to defend itself and its people against these attacks,” said the Prime Minister of Canada.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gathered his staff and his close collaborators in a bunkered room after the announcement of the Iranian attack, according to his services.

A metamorphosis

In the opinion of Sami Aoun, Iran’s frontal attack marks a turning point in the conflict between the two regional rivals.

Until the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Israel and Iran enjoyed cordial relations. With the fall of the Shah of Iran, however, the allies became sworn enemies. The two countries entered into an indirect conflict, which lasted for decades.

In Lebanon, for example, Iran sponsored Hezbollah, a group that still wages an armed struggle against the Jewish state today. In Syria, during the civil war, Israel targeted groups supported by Iran.

This conflict opposes two important military powers. Iran’s armed forces are among the largest in the Middle East, with a corps of at least 580,000 active members and 200,000 reserve members, according to an annual estimate by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

As for Israel, its military strength “is equivalent to, or even greater than, that of all the Arab countries combined,” maintains Hani Faris. According to the professor, an escalation of the conflict between the two powers would have serious consequences. “If this happens, I fear it will cause immense damage to the Middle East and to peace in the region. »

With the collaboration of Bruno Marcotte, The PressAgence France-Presse and the New York Times