(Nicosia) The Iranian regime is divided on how to put an end to the unprecedented protest movement in the country, oscillating between repression and gestures of appeasement, analysts say.
“The mixed messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate about how to handle the protests,” said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.
“In most authoritarian regimes, there are opposing hawks and doves” on the degree of repression during crises, he continues.
While the arrests and convictions of demonstrators have not ceased, the release of certain protest figures is a sign that some are seeking to adopt a less firm approach.
The protests were sparked by the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian Kurd who was arrested by morality police for breaking Iran’s strict dress code that requires women to wear the veil in public.
They turned into calls to overthrow the regime, constituting the biggest challenge to religious power since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Iranian officials generally refer to these protests as “riots” encouraged by hostile countries and organizations.
According to a latest report provided at the end of December by Iran Human Rights (IHR), an NGO based in Oslo, at least 476 people have been killed by the security forces since September 16. About 14,000 people have been arrested, according to the UN.
“Political calculation”
The court sentenced 14 people linked to the protest to death. Four have already been executed, including two on Saturday, sparking a new wave of international outrage, with the UN denouncing the “shocking” hangings.
But the government has announced the opening of new trials for six of the 14 convicted, reviving hopes of a possibly lighter sentence.
A “political calculation”, slice Mehrzad Boroujerdi, specialist in Iran and author of the book Post-Revolution Iran: A Political Guide.
“They know that mass executions […] will take more people to the streets,” he said. “On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they don’t hesitate to execute protesters to intimidate people.”
For analysts, the release of Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, two figures of the protest movement, a few weeks after their arrest, is another attempt to calm the situation.
Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at Durham University in England, believes the new trials reflect external and internal pressures.
“Within the regime itself, there are divisions on how to handle the situation,” with hardliners on one side and those who see the executions as further encouragement for resistance, Ehteshami said.
New trials and release of dissidents are “appeasement measures […] to try to throw a bone” at the protesters, he said.
Such measures may seem insignificant to some, but “a secure and beleaguered regime feels that it is acting generously and responding to public pressure.”
“Machiavellian”
Journalists, filmmakers, lawyers and activists have also been arrested for supporting the protests. Some have been released, such as actress Taraneh Alidoosti.
According to Mr. Hashemi, this strategy of arrest and release is used by the regime, among other things, to “test the waters, see what the reaction is” from the street.
The “indulgence” sometimes shown by the authorities “aims to prevent further division within the security establishment”, the repression having alienated some of its supporters, agrees the academic Afshin Shahi.
The regime “does not seem to have a clear strategy”, he continues. Despite some releases, other personalities have been languishing for months in prison, such as activist Arash Sadeghi and the two journalists who helped reveal the Amini affair.
In December, Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri announced the abolition of the morality police. But no other official source reported it and activists remained skeptical.
This announcement shows that “at least part of the regime” is in favor of a less brutal way of enforcing the dress code, believes Mr. Hashemi.
For Mr. Hashemi, the regime has shown in the past its ability to “make concessions when necessary”.
“People forget that this regime has survived for 44 years because it can be very clever, very clever, very Machiavellian.”