(Vienna) Time for political decisions: the talks between the major powers and Iran to save the Iranian nuclear agreement seem to be entering the home straight, France believing that the negotiation “can succeed”.
Posted yesterday at 2:13 p.m.
The diplomats, who have been meeting continuously for several weeks in Vienna, separated on Friday for a break.
Participants are returning to their capitals for consultations and briefings with a view to returning next week. Political decisions are needed now.
European Union Coordinator Enrique Mora
Notably, the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom reacted with one voice.
“January was the most intense period in these discussions so far,” said the Europeans on one side, the Americans on the other, in identical declarations. “Everyone knows that we are coming to the final stage, which requires political decisions,” they added.
Even the Russians agree
Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, issued a similar message on Twitter, also deeming the process at “an advanced stage requiring political decisions”.
For Naysan Rafati, of the International Crisis Group conflict prevention organization, “given the sense of urgency noted in particular by the Western powers, the next session could be the one where it makes or breaks”.
The agreement, concluded between Iran on the one hand and Germany, China, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Russia on the other hand, offered the Islamic Republic a drastic alleviation of international sanctions in exchange for an equally drastic limitation of its nuclear programme.
But in 2018, under the presidency of Donald Trump who considered it insufficient, Washington slammed the door and reinstated economic sanctions against Tehran which, in response, gradually freed itself from the restrictions imposed on its nuclear activities.
The arrival at the White House of Joe Biden, in favor of the agreement concluded when he was Barack Obama’s vice-president, made it possible to relaunch the discussions.
Direct talks?
The talks opened in April in Vienna and resumed at the end of November after a suspension of five months, to implement a “mutual return” in the 2015 text.
The Americans participate in it indirectly without ever having met the Iranians so far. The European Union and the other parties act as mediators.
On Monday, Iran for the first time considered negotiating directly with the United States, which immediately said it was ready for these “urgent” discussions.
“To our knowledge, Iran has not yet accepted,” Ned Price, spokesman for the US State Department, told reporters on Thursday.
Washington insists that time is running out given the parallel ramp-up of Tehran’s nuclear program.
Obstacles remain, particularly on the issue of guarantees requested by Tehran from the United States, to ensure the effective and above all lasting lifting of sanctions and avoid a new crisis.
Positive signs
“Nevertheless, there are some indications that the negotiation can succeed,” said the French presidency on Friday, indicating that it was necessary “to further clarify, to obtain commitments from each of the parties” on several points.
French President Emmanuel Macron could meet with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raïsi in the coming days, according to the Élysée.
Tehran had also reported at the beginning of the week of “progress going in the right direction” even if “there are still important outstanding issues” which require “political decisions” from the United States.
For its part, Washington refuses to make predictions.
“We are getting closer to a possible agreement but I cannot say what the probability is” of a positive outcome, said Brett McGurk, White House envoy for the Middle East, on Thursday.
Without excluding either the scenario of a “break” in the discussions if no political compromise was found in the days and weeks to come.