(Tehran) Iran “showed its muscles” by launching missiles in Iraq and Syria on the night of Monday to Tuesday, but refrained from targeting American interests to avoid a regional escalation against the backdrop of the war in Gaza, according to experts.
The attacks were expected since Tehran had vowed to retaliate after a deadly suicide attack in early January in Iran and the recent liquidations of several commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic, and leaders of Tehran’s allied formations in his fight against Israel.
“There was immense pressure on the leaders in Tehran to flex their muscles in response to the series of setbacks suffered in recent weeks,” explains Ali Vaez, an Iran researcher at the Crisis Group think tank.
“It is a sort of demonstration of force which has a double objective: to satisfy the defenders (of the government) in the country, but without aggravating tensions with the United States and Israel,” adds this expert, interviewed by AFP .
“Message” to Israel
To do this, the Revolutionary Guards launched ballistic missiles at buildings on the outskirts of Erbil, capital of autonomous Kurdistan in northern Iraq. They destroyed “a spy headquarters” attributed to Israel and targeted “a gathering of anti-Iranian terrorist groups”, according to the official Irna news agency.
These strikes, which killed four civilians according to Kurdish sources, were condemned by Baghdad as an “aggression targeting the sovereignty of Iraq”.
Washington also denounced “irresponsible strikes” which “undermine the stability of Iraq”.
In Syria, Iranian missiles targeted “gathering places of commanders and key elements linked to recent terrorist operations, particularly the Islamic State” (IS), according to the Guardians’ website, Sepah News.
The jihadist group claimed responsibility for the suicide attack carried out on January 3 (90 dead) against a crowd gathered in Kerman, in southern Iran, to commemorate the death of General Qassem Soleimani, architect of Iranian military operations in the Middle East. , killed in January 2020 by an American strike in Iraq.
The Irna agency stressed that the missiles had traveled “more than 1,200 km” between their firing point, in southwest Iran, and the targeted area in Syria, “the most ambitious missile operation carried out so far by Iran. This is “a clear message to the Zionist regime” about Iran’s capacity to strike Israel, according to the agency.
Tehran “continues to strongly support the anti-Israeli campaign” in the war against the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip, “but it is aware that direct intervention would present the risk of plunging the region into confrontation global,” underlines Tohid Asadi, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran.
For his academic colleague Fayyaz Zahed, “neither Iran, nor the United States, nor the other powers are interested in a direct conflict. But each of them plays their own cards.”
” Litle by litle ”
“One of the characteristics” of the policy of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader in power for nearly 35 years, “is to avoid war while striving to maintain the authority of the military forces and security of Iran,” specifies this expert.
Since the start of the conflict in Gaza, triggered by an unprecedented attack by Hamas on Israeli soil on October 7, Tehran has insisted that the actors of the “axis of resistance”, made up of Tehran’s allies in its struggle against Israel, act independently of Iran, contrary to what American or Israeli officials in particular assert.
Among them, Yemeni Houthi rebels are increasing attacks on commercial boats in the Red Sea in “solidarity” with the Palestinians. In retaliation, the United States and the United Kingdom last week targeted more than 30 military sites held by the Houthis, strikes condemned by Tehran.
Ayatollah Khamenei praised Tuesday “what the Houthis did,” who “were not afraid” of American “threats.”
“We are already in a regional war. The events of the last 24 hours clearly demonstrate that it has started, even if it is simmering slowly for the moment,” believes Ali Vaez.