(Washington) Repeated attacks against American forces in the Middle East risk, according to experts, dragging the United States into a conflict with Iran, even as Washington wants to avoid a spillover of the conflict between Israel and Hamas In the region.
American troops and their allies have been attacked 14 times in Iraq and nine times in Syria in the past two weeks, according to the Pentagon.
Washington accuses Tehran of being involved by proxy in these offensives which have been increasing since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas.
In response, the US military carried out strikes in Syria this week, which caused casualties, on sites linked to Iran according to the Pentagon.
This remains a limited response for the United States, which has considerable firepower but seeks to avoid a regional conflagration.
“We are concerned that members of the Iranian threat network are escalating their attacks in ways that risk miscalculation or tipping the region into war,” a senior department official said Monday. American Defense.
” Reaction ”
“Everyone loses in a regional war, which is why we are working with our partners and allies, by telephone, and strengthening our posture to clearly express our desire to avoid a regional conflict,” he said. -he adds.
According to the United States, the attacks by its troops are not linked to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, triggered by the bloody attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement on October 7 which left more than 1,400 dead in Israel.
But Iran said Monday that the attacks on US forces were “a reaction” to US aid to Israel, whose retaliatory bombing of the Gaza Strip has killed more than 8,300 people, according to the Hamas Ministry of Health.
Washington has around 900 soldiers in Syria and nearly 2,500 in Iraq fighting the jihadist organization Islamic State.
The toll from these recent attacks against the Americans has so far been limited to 21 slightly injured soldiers and an army contractor who died of a heart attack while taking shelter during a false alarm. . But the situation could get worse.
Risk of escalation
“There is a significant risk of escalation between the United States and Iran due to a spillover of the war between Israel and Hamas,” either at the initiative of Tehran or if affiliated groups decide to act on their own, said Jeffrey Martini, an expert on defense issues at the RAND Research Center.
Until the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, Washington had concluded a sort of “informal agreement with Iran aimed at reducing regional tensions”, which had put an end to attacks by groups linked to Tehran in Iraq and Syria on American troops, according to the researcher.
But the difference, compared to the waves of attacks carried out by these groups in the past, is that now “all the groups affiliated with Iran seem to be taking action at the same time”, underlined Jon Alterman, specialist in region at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
Which increases “the likelihood that something will go wrong,” he continued.
If the United States loudly repeats its wish to avoid a contagion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, it has at the same time strengthened its military presence in the region as part of its deterrence policy.
“Washington is seeking to maintain restraint while simultaneously showing that it does not need to do so,” says Mr. Alterman.
“The challenge, from the U.S. perspective, is that if you never deal damage, your opponent doubts your will, but if you deal damage, you can get stuck in a spiral.”