“Iran is not going to go further” than a few “inflammatory statements”, according to expert Jean-Paul Chagnollaud

The president of iReMMO, Mediterranean Middle East Studies and Research Institute, was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo”, Sunday September 29, 2024.

Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, president of iReMMO and co-author of The Middle East Atlas : at the roots of violencewas the guest of “8h30 franceinfo”, Sunday September 29, 2024. Future of Hezbollah, Israeli strategy… He answered questions from Bérengère Bonte and Hadrien Bect.

“I don’t see Iran engaging” in a direct conflict with Israel

For the Iranian regime, “To launch into a war today is to both add to Iran’s problems and endanger the regime itself”judge Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, after the death in Lebanon of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement, in Israeli bombings.

“We must understand that this regime, as detestable as it is, particularly in relation to women and in many very authoritarian aspects, is grappling with major economic and social questions”explained the Middle East specialist. “For all these reasons, I do not see Iran getting involved” in a direct conflict with Israel, argued Jean-Paul Chagnollaud.

Following the announcement of the death of the Hezbollah leader, Iran requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Saturday. If Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref, “warned” that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah would lead to the “destruction” of Israel, they are above all “inflammatory statements but in reality, Iran is not going to go any further”estimates the president of iReMMO. He adds that the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is “perfectly lucid about what is happening in Iran and the Iranian decision not to engage more than necessary, on an essentially diplomatic level.”

“Benyamin Netanyahu has the conviction and certainty that the West will do nothing to prevent him from acting”

On November 5, the election of the new American president will take place. A favorable period for Benjamin Netanyahu, because none of the American candidates dare openly criticize the Israeli strikes for fear that “the electorate could sanction this kind of movement.” For Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, the Israeli Prime Minister “knows that his hands are free” and he “has the conviction and certainty that Westerners will do nothing to prevent him from acting as he wishes.”

The Middle East specialist emphasizes “formidable political intelligence” of Netanyahu. “It’s only the French who say there needs to be a ceasefire and not to launch a land offensive. He knows it and he’s playing with it.” Jean-Paul Chagnollaud is certain of it, “It’s imminent, it’s clear that this offensive is going to happen.”

“Iran did not choose these engagements and these clashes”

According to the academic, the war between Israel and Hezbollah “is not that of Iran”. “October 7 is not linked to Iran”he judged. The pro-Iranian Shiite movement opened a front against Israel at the start of the war in Gaza, triggered by the deadly Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023 but “Iran did not choose these engagements and these clashes”. “There have been changes for several years and in particular over the last few months”he clarified.

Especially since “since the arrival of a new president who is Masoud Pezeshkian, the strategic orientations have nevertheless evolved”added Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. “The proof is, in his government, there is a Minister of Foreign Affairs who immediately spoke with the Americans to return to the nuclear issue, which is absolutely essential”he added.