For Emmanuel Macron, is the hardest part beginning? The Head of State, re-elected Sunday April 24 with 58.55% of the vote, according to the final results communicated by the Ministry of the Interior, saw his lease at the Elysée renewed for five years. There will not be one more: the Constitution prohibits the President of the Republic from serving more than two consecutive terms. Consequently, at 8:01 p.m., Sunday, “the race of the little horses has begun”laughs a minister about the war of succession which should animate the first months of the second five-year Macron, already marked out.
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Announcement of results: April 27
“Monday, during the day, we have a final recording of the results on the basis of all the results which have been collected from all the polling stations and which are centralized by the Ministry of the Interior”reminds AFP the constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier, professor of public law at the University of Lille. “We have to wait if there are any disputes, which are decided very quickly by the Constitutional Council” before the president of the institution, Laurent Fabius, officially proclaims the result of the election, Wednesday, April 27. Emmanuel Macron can however appoint a new Prime Minister without waiting for this date, but it is more likely that he will wait a few days.
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A final Council of Ministers will also be held this Wednesday. Jean Castex, who is also the leader of the majority, announced that he would present the resignation of his government “in the following days” the re-election of the Head of State, “as tradition dictates”. “It should be Thursday April 28th or Friday April 29th”anticipates a minister who has already put his things away and packed his bags. “As long as a new government is not in place, the resigning government manages current affairs”recalls Anne Levade, professor of public law at the University of Paris 1. “Not everyone disappears from the ministries the moment the letter of resignation is sent.”
Investiture: before May 13
Emmanuel Macron must be invested for a second term before May 13 at midnight, the date of the end of his first five-year term at 55, rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré, in Paris. In 2017, a week had passed between his election and his inauguration. This year, without a handover, things could go even faster.
The ceremony begins in the village hall of the Elysée with the proclamation of the official results and the signing of the minutes of the investiture of the new Head of State. Emmanuel Macron will then be presented with the large necklace of the Legion of Honor, before delivering his inaugural speech. Finally, traditionally, a salvo of 21 guns is fired to mark the assumption of duty.
A new government: the week of May 4?
Once invested, the Head of State appoints his Prime Minister, which he had done the day after his inauguration in 2017. Many names circulate in the corridors of the ministries, such as Elisabeth Borne, Christine Lagarde or even Julien Denormandie. But the predictions of the aftermath of victory rarely correspond to the nominations when the time comes. “Elisabeth Borne is campaigning, but I think it’s never a good sign to campaign to be at Matignon”hisses a minister.
In a second time, “on the proposal of the Prime Minister”as provided for in the Constitution, the Head of State appoints the members of the government. “As a rule, there is a delay between the announcement of the appointment of the Prime Minister and that of the government”, explains Anne Levade. Between the Elysée and Matignon, exchanges are constant to choose the ministers, whose situation is traditionally examined by the High Authority for the transparency of public life. “It is not a legal obligation, but a possibility”specifies the member of the Club of lawyers.
“I know Emmanuel Macron, he always wants things to go quickly, but it always takes ten daysanticipates a minister. On Wednesday, May 4, will we have the first Council of Ministers of the new government? It could also very well be the following Friday or Saturday.” One thing is certain: at the end of this first weekly meeting, the ministers will pose around the head of state, in the corridors or the gardens of the Elysée, for a first photo of the executive.
Legislative candidacies: before the 20th may
The legislative battle, crucial for the future of the five-year term, will begin quickly. The staffs of the parties have already been working for several weeks on the nominations. But there is a deadline to agree. Declarations of candidacy must be filed in duplicate, at the prefecture, from May 16 and no later than May 20 at 6 p.m.
In the majority, the great maneuvers have therefore begun to design the future Assembly. “The idea is to have a symphonic orchestra, and not a cacophonous one, and that everyone does not develop their own choir”believes a MoDem executive with, in his viewfinder, the legislative ambitions of Edouard Philippe and his new party, Horizons. “He was asked not to present candidates to the outgoing”, many of which will be reinvested, at least for those who wish. “But that still leaves 227 constituencies to play in. Edouard Philippe would like 100 constituencies, including 50 with outgoing people.”
Legislative elections: June 12 and 19
They are presented as the “third round” of this election year : the French are called to the polls to choose their deputy, during the legislative elections on Sundays 12 and 19 June. For French nationals living abroad and those in Polynesia, the first ballot will take place on the weekend of 4 and 5 June. Will Emmanuel Macron have, on the morning of the 20 June, by an absolute majority of 289 LREM deputies to govern, or will he have to deal with other political forces of a vast centrist bloc ? Another scenario: can he be outvoted by his opponents on the left, right or far right? ?
Whether or not the legislative elections are won by the executive camp, “Whoever has been appointed Prime Minister the day after the presidential election will be required to resign the day after the legislative elections”, explains Anne Levade. If Emmanuel Macron retains the majority, “The Prime Minister will probably be the same as the one who was appointed in May. Otherwise, he would have to choose a Prime Minister from the majority camp in the legislative elections, for cohabitation.” Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also called on the French to “elect him prime minister” during this election.
The National Assembly takes office on Wednesday 22 June for its 16th legislature. The president of the lower house is elected by secret ballot to the gallery on Tuesday 28 June. It is on this day that the political groups that will sit in the hemicycle are also declared. “This statement may mention the group’s membership of the opposition”, specifies the National Assembly on its site. The composition of the eight permanent committees takes place the following day, Wednesday 29 June.
After a long campaign, MPs may not breathe for a few weeks. “Following a presidential election, extraordinary sessions of Parliament have become almost systematic for reasons of the electoral calendar”, recounts Anne Levade. Called by the Prime Minister on a specific number of texts, they generally take place in July and September.