China’s rise to power is arguably the most defining contemporary phenomenon in the international system. In this ascent that has been going on for nearly three decades, Beijing’s economic expansion has been greeted generally positively. At worst, it was a new economic hub that would rival the American and European giants.
The situation is different with the development of Beijing’s military and technological capabilities, which raise much greater concerns, especially with the Asian giant’s ambitions in the South China Sea, the military air exercises over Taiwan and the testing of new ones. hypersonic missiles.
Although these two faces of the “Chinese miracle” are only the reflection of the emergence of a world order called to change, the fact remains that these great upheavals can echo what the Greek historian and strategist Thucydides observed in his speech. time, 25 centuries ago: Fearing that an increasingly powerful Athens would extend its hold over the Peloponnese, Sparta attacked it before its apprehension materialized.
At the heart of this classic episode in international relations is the security dilemma: how to defend oneself against a perceived threat without fueling this same threat with an arms race, at the risk of leading to a war?
By striving to increase their security and by pursuing the defense of their economic interests, states risk increasing insecurity and the military response of their neighbors, explains the political scientist Pierre de Senarclens. However, with the rise of China and the fears it arouses, this dilemma is settling in people’s minds.
The danger with this dilemma is that it can lead to the phenomenon of self-fulfilling prophecy: assuming that there is a Chinese plan for imperial domination, one can come to be convinced of it and act on it by performing defensive gestures that may be perceived as offensive and provocative.
In this sense, the new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) aiming, among other things, to equip Australia with nuclear submarines, can be considered as a reflection of such a reading. . The Indo-Pacific would thus be called upon to become the next theater of strategic and military confrontation.
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Loading Packages at Nanchang Station, Hunan Province
Although attractive because it is relatively simple to understand, the security dilemma’s framework ignores longer and more global processes and phenomena.
Unlike the European theater of the two world wars or the East-West bipolarity of the Cold War, the current changes indeed require a more complex analysis, because relations with China are marked by an interconnection that is both economic and technological, cultural and historical.
By embracing this complexity, it therefore becomes possible to grasp that beyond military spending and exercises, for example, commercial flights between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China continue and that the two economies still maintain commercial ties. and very narrow financials. And that despite its territorial disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, mainland China maintains important commercial ties with these countries, and the communities of Chinese origin there are forging many business partnerships. .
In addition, and beyond Southeast Asia, Beijing is well interwoven with large parts of the world thanks to loans, investments and development assistance programs that it manages bilaterally and multilaterally. , notably with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Finally, the immense Chinese project of the New Silk Roads is based on the ambition to increase trade flows within Asia, but also with Europe, thus increasing the interdependence between China and the rest of the world.
Add to the complexity of China’s relationship with the rest of the world its domestic situation. There is no lack of points of tension and problems likely to weaken or relativize this position: vulnerability of its energy supplies, gigantic pollution problems, identity claims, problematic management of political oppositions in Hong Kong, aging of the population, etc.
Faced with the current movement of geopolitical tectonic plates, the one-dimensional reading based on the simple calculation of China’s military capabilities can be reductive and lead straight into the trap of the security dilemma.
In Canada, after having spent more than four years scrutinizing the smallest deeds, gestures and tweets of US President Donald Trump, it would now be desirable to invest this same level of effort and energy in understanding this distant neighbor of Orient with which we share, after all, an ocean with a name that is as inspiring as it is enigmatic.
Closer than you think
For years, Canada has enjoyed a positive image in China, notably thanks to the role played by physician Norman Bethune during the Chinese Revolution. Today, relations are more difficult, as demonstrated by the long saga around the extradition request of Meng Wanzhou, vice president of Huawei, and the arbitrary detention of Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig. The coming months will be decisive for the future of Sino-Canadian relations as China is a leading economic partner (third after the United States and the European Union), hence the importance of understanding the significance and the consequences of the rise of the Chinese giant.
For further
Listen to Pierre Grosser’s interview on Radio France, “China has a difficult relationship with traditional alliances” Read The history of the world is made in Asia: another vision of the XXe century, Pierre Grosser, Éditions Odile Jacob, 2017 Read “China: Geopolitics, geoeconomics, geostrategy”, Diplomacy Magazine noto 62 Read “When China thinks of itself as a great power”, Barthélémy Courmont, Diplomacy Magazine
Listen to “How China conquers the world: the role of symbolic power”, interview with Roromme Chantal at The more the merrier, the more we read!
Read The Future Is Asian, Parag Khanna, Simon & Schuster, 2019