Six months after the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the two protagonists are bogged down in a war of positions, the effect of which will be to prolong the conflict for several months, if not several years. The reinforcement of the Ukrainian military tool by the Westerners is countered by the defensive posture of the Russians in all the conquered territories. From this perspective, it is hard to see how Ukraine could get away with it and even push Russian forces out of its territory.
Moreover, circumstances and time are relegating the war in Ukraine to the background as the world faces serious energy and food crises. Western governments are now focused on their domestic issues, and the media has already begun to lose interest in the Ukrainian cause by reducing their daily coverage.
It is on the diplomatic level that Ukraine suffers the hardest setback. The Ukrainian cause has never aroused great enthusiasm within the United Nations General Assembly. The fact remains that the day after the February 24 invasion, Ukraine succeeded in mobilizing the votes of 141 countries out of 193 members in order to condemn the Russian coup. But, already, 52 countries had abstained, had voted against or had not taken part in the vote. And the most amazing thing was to see that some, including several American allies, India, Senegal, South Africa, Iraq and Pakistan, had decided not to support Ukraine.
Six months later, enthusiasm for the Ukrainian cause is waning. Last week, to mark six months since the invasion, the United States issued a statement condemning Russia and demanding an end to the war. This declaration received the support of only 57 countries and the European Union. Faced with such a failure to mobilize the international community, the United States did nothing to publicize this text, and the Western media were careful not to talk about it. My requests to the United States Mission to the Nations for clarification on this matter have gone unanswered.
The interest of this text is not in the list of signatories, but in those who do not appear there. The overwhelming majority of the 58 signatories are Western, mainly European countries. With few exceptions, the vast majority of South American, African, Arab and Asian countries refused to sign. Even Israel is absent from the list of signatories. More serious, and which does not bode well for the G20 meeting in Indonesia in November, 9 of the 20 members of the grouping have not signed. And some, like Brazil, Saudi Arabia and India, no longer hesitate to announce the strengthening of their relations with Russia.
How to explain such a tumble between the moment of the vote of 141 countries in favor of Ukraine the day after the invasion and the lack of rallying around the American text? Richard Gowan, of the International Crisis Group in New York, has been a keen observer of the diplomatic scene at the UN for more than 20 years. For him, the answer is simple. “Between the initial Ukraine crisis in 2014 and this year, non-Western states have generally avoided taking strong positions” on the conflict, he emailed me. They have other concerns and they “see no advantage in irritating either the United States or Russia. In fact, we may be returning to that pre-February status quo, in which most UN members say little about Ukraine.”
I would add another element. Non-signatory states are increasingly ignoring great power rivalries. Thus, in the struggle between the United States and China for global hegemony, most states refuse to align themselves. Over the past thirty years, they have learned to play the great powers against each other, remembering that they now have a choice in their relations, which was not the case even 20 or 30 years ago.
Ukraine is fighting a constant battle for its survival. President Zelensky uses all means, including the front page of magazines people, to draw attention to his country. Western reports magnify the courage and determination of the Ukrainian army. However, the glamorization of the president and the heroization of Ukrainian soldiers will not win the war. The front stagnates while diplomacy stalls. Indifference, too, is taking hold in the capitals and in public opinion. The failure of the Americans to unite the international community around Ukraine demonstrates this.