International | Central Asia and Afghanistan: living with a turbulent neighbor

The countries of Central Asia are in a unique position. These countries of modest power must contend, in their immediate neighborhood, with the return of the Taliban and the growing threat from the Islamist militants of the Islamic State group.

Helene thibault
Visiting researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research of the University of Montreal and Professor of Political Science at the University of Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan

The countries of Central Asia have a troubled relationship with their Afghan neighbor and the return to power of the Taliban further complicates political and economic relations between them. If the Taliban regime did not pose a serious threat to its northern neighbors when it was in power from 1995 to 2001, the presence of the Islamic State group in Khorasan (IS-K) is a game-changer.

The response of the Central Asian states is also complicated by the presence of new players, including China, which now enjoys a military presence in Tajikistan, a privilege that has long been reserved for Russia. If in the past the diplomatic ballet in the region was called a “big game”, it would now be more appropriate to speak of “diplomatic games” in which small states could do well by proving their strategic importance.

The Soviet break

Although these states are neighbors, 70 years of Sovietism have created a deep social and political divide between Afghanistan and the Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan (of the five , the last three share a border with Afghanistan).

These predominantly Muslim societies are strongly marked by the secular heritage, even hostile to religion, which remains strongly under the control of the state. Political parties of a religious nature are prohibited and despite a certain religious revival since national independence, after the collapse of the USSR, Central Asian people are not very sensitive to extremist ideas. Despite a few rare episodes of violence, the region remains remarkably stable, unlike its neighbor Afghanistan, in an almost permanent state of civil war.

Although often exaggerated by Central Asian governments in order to justify authoritarian practices, the threat of religious extremism is now of heightened importance with the presence of IS-K at the gates of the region.

While the Taliban form a Pashtun-dominated movement with political ambitions limited to Afghanistan, IS-K for its part claims an Islamic identity that goes beyond ethnic identities and questions the very idea of ​​a state. -nation.

Of the 2,000 or so militants from Central Asia who joined the ranks of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, some are known to have joined ISIS today.

The threat posed by this terrorist organization will depend on its development in Afghanistan. Which model will prevail? The national emirate which will remain within the geographical limits of Afghanistan or the caliphate, which implies an expansion across the border? In any case, two major players provide the line of defense: Russia and China.

A secure region of renewed importance

As in Soviet times, the 1,357 km border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan is of great strategic importance. Russia is also stationing a motorized unit of 7,000 soldiers there. It is its most imposing military contingent outside the territory. And under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreements, an attack on Tajikistan would trigger an immediate Russian response.

Obsessed with maintaining stability in the region, China has just built a military base in Tajikistan.

Regionally, several mini-summits have taken place among regional security organizations, including the CSTO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but no coordinated response has yet been formulated. This did not prevent the capitals from increasing bilateral meetings with Kabul.

For their part, concerned about the return of the Taliban and the presence of ISIS, the Central Asian states have the opportunity to demonstrate their strategic importance and develop their own foreign policy. They have all established diplomatic ties with Afghanistan, with the exception of Tajikistan which, in this regard, is closer to Western positions. President Emomali Rahmon, who was recently in France, openly criticized the Taliban; for their ideology, but also because of the treatment reserved for the Tajik minority in Afghanistan, which has been excluded from power even though it represents 30% of the population. Tajikistan is also home to Ahmad Massoud, son of Commander Massoud, a Tajik from Afghanistan who is a national opposition figure in exile.

Other states in the region, including Kazakhstan, have negotiated humanitarian agreements with the Taliban. Kazakhstan is also playing the card of neutrality by welcoming on its territory the UN Mission in Afghanistan, which has temporarily relocated its offices and around 100 employees there.

For the governments of Central Asia, bilateral relations aim above all to ensure Kabul’s cooperation in the fight against extremist groups, which could export their fight to the north. Pragmatism trumps idealism. As senior Kazakh official Dauren Abayev put it recently, “Taliban takeover is not the most desirable development, but if you compare them with other groups, it’s not the worst-case scenario.” . It remains to be seen whether the Taliban government will have the will and the capacity to ensure national stability.

Closer than you think

The Aga Khan Foundation, whose founder has known links with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is one of the most important humanitarian actors in Central Asia, especially in Tajikistan and Afghanistan due to the presence of many Ismailis, a branch very moderate in Shiite Islam. The five Central Asian countries are also, like Canada, members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), founded during the Cold War era to facilitate East-West dialogue. .

The National Front of Resistance of Afghanistan, an opposition group to the Taliban led by the son of the famous and late “Commander Massoud”, Ahmad Massoud, an opponent of Tajik origin who has now taken refuge in Tajikistan, says it wants to do something about it. Afghanistan a decentralized federation like Canada. “Afghanistan is a multicultural state, like Canada. [Votre pays] has always been one of our examples. You have a peaceful coexistence between Quebecers and the rest of the country, ”said at the end of August to the National Post Front spokesman Ali Nazary.

For further

Hélène Thibault suggests the following sources of information:

• Novastan.org, a French news site on Central Asia
• The Qishloq Ovozi blog on the Radio Free Europe website, for news about Central Asia through analytical articles and podcasts
• The French Institute for Central Asian Studies
• “Central Asia: Middle Earth”, a series of four reports on France culture

Consult the Novastan site Consult the Radio Free Europe site Consult the site of the French Institute for Central Asian Studies Consult the France Culture site