If the multiplication of forest fires raises fears of a difficult summer across Canada, meteorologists and specialists warn that these phenomena will most likely increase in the coming years. And we will have to prepare for it. Interview with Jean-Pierre Blanchet, professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).
Why are we seeing so many fires spreading now?
We are in a period where droughts are increasing a lot across Canada, but what is increasing the most is climate variability. We see more and more very humid periods, with a lot of precipitation, then very dry periods. On top of all that, there are heavier thunderstorms that tend to start fires. From all sides, it bombards us at the moment. It’s a whole combination of circumstances, or at least several conditions that come into play quite suddenly.
How does climate change contribute to this?
There are several things. But mainly, it is that nowadays, even during abundant rainfall, we see that the ground is relatively dry and therefore, it does not absorb water well. It accentuates the problem and it also causes a lot of erosion, which contributes to weakening the trees, to having weaker vegetation. We are not the only ones. Worldwide, many people are affected in a similar way, in Australia for example or in Europe, around the Mediterranean, in particular.
What is the main challenge this year, besides the size of the forest fires?
It really is that it is on a grand scale. Forests are getting noticeably drier over large areas across Canada, so the terrain at risk is much greater. If we think of California a few years ago, the severe drought was mainly on the American west coast, whereas at home, it can be seen over a large part of the territory. This makes it very difficult for the authorities to deploy major resources everywhere to alleviate the whole situation. There are choices to be made.
Should we be worried that it will get even worse?
In the short term, it’s hard to say. But in the medium and long term, it will grow, it’s just a start. All of this will become more and more important. If we stopped producing greenhouse gases now, it would take around fifty years to begin to restore a balance. Fortunately, the good news is that the Canadian Space Agency now has new satellites to measure and track wildfires in greater detail.
As a citizen, what message should we retain in the face of all this?
We’ve been talking about it for a long time, about the climate that was going to warm up and the consequences it was going to have. We were talking about it in the 1980s and no one believed us. Now people are starting to realize it. The planet behaves a bit like a smoker who says to himself: it doesn’t matter, I can smoke another one. As long as we are not stuck in extreme situations, we have difficulty making decisions. But we’re going to have to take them quickly.