The peak of new cases and hospitalizations could soon be reached in Greater Montreal, show new projections released Thursday by the National Institute of Public Health (INSPQ). However, these data must be interpreted with caution, given the uncertainty surrounding Omicron and the still “fragile” epidemiological situation in Quebec.
Posted at 12:51
The more optimistic scenarios of the independent organization indeed predict “that the peaks of cases and new hospitalizations would have been reached or could be reached by January 17”.
However, more pessimistic simulations predict on the contrary “that cases and new hospitalizations could continue to increase for a few more days / weeks”, an increase which could be propelled by the return to school scheduled for next Monday and so “delay the peak of cases”.
“In either situation, peaks in current hospitalizations and deaths would occur later depending on the length of hospital stay and the time between infection and death. In the absence of data on the cases, the incidental hospitalization data of the coming days will make it possible to better understand the trajectory of the epidemic “, also specify the researchers, who nevertheless expect” a slowdown in the growth “of COVID -19 in the “majority” of their simulations.
The vice-president for scientific affairs at the INSPQ, Éric Litvak, specifies that monitoring transmission among young people when they return to school will be “essential to better anticipate the evolution of the epidemic in the coming weeks and the risk of percolation towards more vulnerable groups”.
Still uncertain
On Twitter, the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS), indicates for its part that it will not publish its projections today “given the uncertainty of the data”. “A work to adjust the projection models is in progress and the publication can resume as soon as they are stabilized”, one notes, stressing that “taking into account, among other things, the underestimation of the number of real cases and the uncertainty surrounding the positivity rate, two variables which were preponderant in our models, the Institute is working to adjust the projection models ”.
The INSPQ also warns that its projections “must however be interpreted with caution”, uncertainties remaining concerning the severity of the Omicron variant, including “the risk of death per case, the rate of vaccination, the adherence of the population to the measures announced and the impact of returning to school”.
Researcher at the Research Group in Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics Related to Infectious Diseases at Laval University, Marc Brisson, also calls for caution.
Hospitalization data, new and ongoing, will allow us to better understand the trajectory of the epidemic. Given the very high community transmission, the situation remains fragile although a slowdown in the growth of cases and hospitalizations could occur soon.
Marc Brisson, researcher at Laval University
Barely in office, the new acting national director of public health, Dr.r Luc Boileau, had indicated Tuesday that this peak “could arrive shortly”. “Has it arrived, is it installed? As we speak, we are not able to confirm it. We hope that for all of us, it goes without saying, ”he said. The new head of pandemic management says he “hopes” that a slowdown in growth will be observed “soon”.
Prime Minister François Legault must also hold a press briefing Thursday at 3 p.m. to take stock of the evolution of the pandemic. In particular, he should confirm the return to school and the lifting of the curfew next Monday.