Quebec must prepare for an upsurge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations during the holiday season, according to new projections from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ) and Laval University released Monday. This increase should nevertheless be lower than that observed last year with the Omicron variant.
“What you have to anticipate is that with the increase in contacts from the gatherings, there is a little more transmission that occurs in this period,” warned the associate vice president for scientific affairs. at the INSPQ, the Dr Eric Litvak.
The high number of cases of COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses will therefore continue to cause pressure on the health care system during the holiday season, he said.
Intergenerational contact could cause cases to be transmitted from younger people to older or vulnerable people, who are at greater risk of serious infections and hospitalizations.
Marc Brisson, Director of the Research Group in Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics Related to Infectious Diseases at Université Laval
This transmission of cases to the elderly during the holiday season was also observed for other respiratory viruses before the pandemic, specifies the director of the Research Group in Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics Related to Infectious Diseases of Laval University, Marc Brisson.
The Dr Litvak therefore invites Quebecers to pay particular attention to the protection of vulnerable people, that is “people who are older, who have a health problem and those who have never had infections before”.
According to forecasts, the peak of new hospitalizations could be between those of the summer and spring of 2022.
“With what we see circulating now, there is no variant that evades immunity enough to give rise to what we saw with Omicron last year,” says Dr.r Litvak.
This predicted increase in cases and hospitalizations is also caused by a potentially greater immune escape of the BQ.1 and BQ1.1 variants compared to BA.4 and BA.5. These variants currently cause more than half of the cases in Quebec, and this proportion is growing rapidly.
The “triple epidemic” is still being felt
Moreover, the “triple epidemic” is still being felt in Quebec. The peak of influenza A cases may have been passed, the presence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) continues to decline, but COVID-19 cases continue to increase.
Another positive element, the spread of RSV, which mainly affects children, continues to decline. The virus was detected in 6.3% of screening tests carried out over the past week. This is down sharply from the peak of 20.1% reached at the beginning of November.
On the other hand, COVID-19 continues to progress. Over the past week, 10.9% of screening tests have been positive.
In fact, the province’s most recent COVID-19 report on Monday shows that cases continue to rise. The 748 new cases by PCR tests reported on Monday bring the daily average to 1096. The trend is thus up 20% over one week. These numbers likely reflect only a portion of total infections due to limited access to PCR testing.
In addition to the cases detected by PCR tests, 599 people reported over the weekend having tested positive on a rapid test. Self-reported cases, which are not included in daily reported cases, increased by 21% over one week.
The 21 deaths reported during the weekend, including a Monday, bring the daily average calculated over seven days to 10. The trend is up 12% over one week.