After increasing by 2.9% over one year, prices will continue to rise until the summer, according to the public body in charge of national statistics.
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Prices will continue to soar in the first half. Inflation is expected to reach “between 3% and 3.5%”, estimated INSEE, Tuesday, February 8, after having already reached 2.9% over one year in January. In its previous forecasts, published in mid-December, the National Institute of Statistics (Insee) forecast inflation above 2.6% for the first half of 2022.
This acceleration in inflation should, however, be contained by the measures put in place to support household purchasing power (energy vouchers, inflation compensation, gas price freeze, cap on the rise in electricity prices). “Without them, the inflation forecast for February would have been raised by at least one percentage point”or more than 4%, assesses INSEE.
With regard to economic activity, INSEE slightly lowered (to 0.3%) its growth forecast for the first quarter, against 0.4% previously, due to the arrival of the Omicron variant. But this slowdown in the economy, after growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2021, should only be “temporary”. INSEE thus raised its growth forecast for the second quarter by 0.1 point, to +0.6%, with in particular a “slow dissipation” supply difficulties. He warns, however, about the difficulties of recruitment, which “reach record levels”.