Is the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic behind us? On the demographic front, at least, France is recovering. After a dark year in 2020, the population has regained life expectancy in 2021. The number of deaths has fallen, that of births has risen and marriages have returned to their pre-pandemic level. Here is what to remember from INSEE’s annual report on French demography, published on Tuesday 18 January.
The population continues to grow
On January 1, 2022, France had 67,813,396 inhabitants, or 187,000 more than on the same date last year, according to a first estimate. These data correspond, after a methodological adjustment, to an increase of 0.33% over one year, slightly more than in 2020 (0.31%) but less than between 2014 and 2019 (0.4% on average).
Like last year, this increase is mainly due to a higher number of entries into the territory than departures. This migratory balance, estimated at +140,000 people, is greater than the natural balance, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths, which until now was the main driver of French population growth.
The natural balance rises
After reaching a historic low in early 2021, the gap between births and deaths has widened again. According to figures released on Tuesday, 738,000 babies were born alive last year, 3,000 more than in 2020 (but 15,000 less than in 2019). The beginning of the year 2021 had however been marked by a decline in births of 10%, “unheard of since the start of the baby boom”, “due to the first confinement and the fact that some couples have postponed their child project”, according to INSEE. Ultimately, “the rebound in births that followed in March and April 2021, then the sharp rise since the summer made it possible to catch up with the level of births for the year 2020, even slightly exceeding it”.
At the same time, 657,000 people lost their lives last year, 12,000 less than in 2020 (but 44,000 more than in 2019). This still high level is explained by “the arrival of large baby-boom generations at ages of high mortality” and by the third, fourth and fifth waves of the pandemic.
In the end, the natural balance is calculated at +81,000, still lower than before the health crisis. [Du fait d’un changement méthodologique lors du recensement, l’addition du solde migratoire et du solde naturel présentés par l’Insee donne un résultat supérieur à l’évolution estimée de la population, d’où un ajustement de -34 000.]
Women have (slightly) more children
In terms of fertility, the plunge started since 2010 is interrupted, without the trend being reversed. In 2021, women of childbearing age had an average of 1.83 children (1.82 excluding Mayotte), compared to 1.82 in 2020 (1.81 excluding Mayotte).
France remains the most fertile country in the European Union, according to comparisons made with figures from 2019. French women then had 1.86 children, ahead of Romanians (1.77) and a European average of 1.53. Malta, Spain and Italy brought up the rear, with levels below 1.3.
Life expectancy is on the rise again
After a loss of 0.5 years of life expectancy for women in 2020 and 0.6 for men, last year allowed a start to catch up. Life expectancy at birth is now 85.4 years for women (+0.3) and 79.3 years for men (+0.2). On a European scale, France is at the top of the women’s ranking and in the middle of the men’s table.
Weddings back to the wedding
In 2021, France celebrated 220,000 civil marriages, including 6,000 between people of the same sex, according to INSEE estimates. This is a clear rebound compared to the 155,000 unions in 2020, a year which had been marked by a historic decline of 31%, due in particular to the virtual ban on marriages during the first confinement. The past year has thus made it possible to hold ceremonies that had been postponed to 2020, even if, once again, “some couples may have wished to postpone their union in the absence of visibility on the evolution of the pandemic”, underlines the INSEE.
As every year, the number of Pacs is only known a year late: the 2020 vintage was marked by the conclusion of 174,000 civil solidarity pacts, a figure down by 11%. For the first time, that year, Pacs outnumbered marriages.