Over the past year, Quebec has experienced its largest population increase since statistics began. In Montreal, growth has been dazzling and most regions have seen their populations increase. A real gift for companies lacking labor? Yes and no. The influx of this unskilled labor force makes life easier for many businesses, but it does nothing to increase productivity.
There are signs that are unmistakable. The number of restaurant openings is on the rise, after the massacre that followed the pandemic.
“The employment situation is less tense,” recognizes the spokesperson for the restaurant owners’ association, Martin Vézina. The number of openings is about to exceed the number of closings.
“What has changed is that restaurateurs now have a choice when it comes to hiring, something we haven’t seen for three years. Before, having two arms and two legs was enough to find a job in the restaurant industry. »
After an increase of 153,000 people in 2022, the population of Quebec increased by 218,000 people in 2023. The vast majority are non-permanent residents, that is to say temporary workers, foreign students and job applicants. ‘asylum.
These newcomers largely filled the vacant positions in the accommodation and catering sector, where the needs were most pressing. The number of vacant positions decreased by 27% between 2022 and 2023, a drop which can also be explained by the economic slowdown and the reduction in opening hours in several establishments.
The easing of the job market is particularly remarkable in Montreal, which received almost half of the new arrivals.
In the regions, which have all seen their populations increase, recruitment problems persist.
The panic button
This is the case in the Chaudière-Appalaches region, where around fifty companies sounded the alert in 2021 and pleaded in an open letter the need to obtain more temporary workers in order to stay in business.
Since then, the region’s population has increased by 1.6% and the number of job vacancies has decreased by 34%.
Rémi Breton, president of the Ferti Group, was a signatory of the open letter. Has he seen any improvement? “At all,” he hastens to respond.
Her business, which specializes in landscaping maintenance, is busy year-round, but she relies on foreign workers to meet increased demand in the summer. This year, the Mexican workers that the Ferti Group was expecting were delayed by the federal government’s decision to impose visas on Mexican nationals.
PHOTO OLIVIER JEAN, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
The Mexican workers that the Ferti Group was expecting were delayed this year by the federal government’s decision to impose visas on Mexican nationals.
Rémi Breton was scared, but the Mexicans ended up arriving. “My panic button still went off,” says Rémi Breton.
The Ferti Group is hampered in its expansion by the lack of labor, according to its president. “My business has been stagnating for four years,” he says.
The closure of the Olymel plant in Vallée-Jonction, which employed 1,200 people, gave some breathing room to other businesses in the region. “It gave us a real helping hand,” even affirms Rémi Breton.
At 2.9%, the regional unemployment rate is still very low, compared to 5.1% for Quebec, tempers the general director of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Nouvelle-Beauce. “Recruitment remains difficult, especially for specialized positions,” she says.
The slow economy
The economic slowdown has also contributed to reducing labor needs. This is the case at Groupe Soucy, in Drummondville, which manufactures tracked vehicles and off-road vehicle components.
The company has had chronic recruiting problems for a long time. She even created an internal position to manage her foreign worker needs and work permits for employees who come from as far away as Madagascar and the Philippines. However, this year, the company had to lay off its foreign workers, says Joanie Mailhot, communications and marketing manager for the Soucy Group.
We have two quite different realities. We have a drop in orders in motorsports, due to the economic situation, and we also lack workers.”
Joanie Mailhot, communications and marketing manager for the Soucy Group
The Soucy Group serves other customers, such as the military sector, which is less affected by the economic slowdown. “We still have dire needs for engineers and electromechanics. We are snapping them up,” says the company spokesperson.
The Centre-du-Québec region, where the Soucy Group’s head office is located, has an unemployment rate of 2.9%, compared to 5.1% for all of Quebec. Its population has increased by 2.8% over the past year. There are still more than 4,000 vacancies in the region, but that number is down 25%.
So much for productivity
The recent influx of working-age immigrants makes it possible to fill hard-to-fill positions, but it also prevents businesses from adapting to labor scarcity by investing to increase their productivity.
“Employment growth has been concentrated in less productive sectors, notably accommodation and catering,” notes Emna Braham, general director of the Institut du Québec. “It’s dragging down Quebec’s productivity.”
PHOTO AMIR HAMJA, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
New arrivals have found employment in the least productive sectors of the economy, notably in the construction sector.
Productivity measures economic activity produced per hour worked. This is the crux of the matter in modern economies because productivity allows us to maintain and increase our standard of living without creating inflation. Canada is one of the least productive countries in the OECD and Quebec is lagging behind among the Canadian provinces, due to the greater weight of activities such as restaurants or retail trade in its economy.
The Quebec Institute calculates that catering adds $24 in economic value per hour worked, compared to $84 per hour worked in the finance and insurance sector and $59 on average for all industries.
Since the pandemic, the number of hours worked has increased in Quebec, while gross domestic product has decreased.
The scarcity of labor is an incentive to transform and companies must find ways to do so with fewer employees. If labor becomes more available, this incentive disappears and delays this necessary shift.”
Emna Braham, general director of the Institut du Québec
The new arrivals are mainly temporary workers, foreign students and asylum seekers. This unskilled workforce found employment in the least productive sectors of the economy, especially in accommodation, restaurants and construction.
Temporary relief
For employers, who have pushed hard for Quebec to welcome more foreign workers, the current improvement is welcome, but it risks being temporary, according to Daye Diallo, senior director, labor policies and economic intelligence , of the Employers’ Council.
“When we look at the increase in the population, there is a certain relief in the labor market,” he recognizes, especially in Montreal, which has experienced the greatest population increase.
This improvement could be temporary, mentions the spokesperson for the Employers’ Council. It highlights the federal government’s intention to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada over the next three years.
“Immigration is a solution to support our businesses,” emphasizes Daye Diallo. Technology and increased production are others, but there will always be a need for unskilled labor in the fisheries, agriculture and agri-food sectors,” he argues. -he.
Desjardins economist Randall Bartlett expects that the possible reduction in the number of temporary residents will result in an increase in vacancies and an increase in wages.
“Some companies will be able to innovate to reduce their dependence on cheap and abundant temporary labor and increase their productivity,” he analyzes. Unfortunately, some companies will not do this, causing ongoing problems. »